Economic Growth and Tariffs: A Conversation with Stephen Miran

Strategic Insights -

Stephen Miran, Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, joined George Stephanopoulos on This Week to discuss the current state of the economy and the president's economic policies. Miran emphasized that the administration's policies, such as tax cuts and deregulation, have led to unprecedented economic growth and will continue to do so. He also addressed concerns about the impact of tariffs on the economy and the potential consequences of not passing the "One Big, Beautiful Bill."

Key Takeaways:

  • Miran argued that the administration's policies have led to robust economic growth, with an annualized rate of 2.8 percent from 2017 to 2019, and that this growth is expected to continue.
  • He disputed predictions that the "One Big, Beautiful Bill" will lead to significant deficits, arguing that economic growth will increase tax revenue and reduce deficits.
  • Miran pointed out that the Council of Economic Advisers' (CEA) forecast for economic growth is consistent with historical trends, with the CEA predicting 2-3 percent growth in the coming years.
  • He acknowledged that some countries may be slow to make concessions on trade agreements but expressed optimism that deals will be reached and that the president may roll the deadline for those countries.
  • Miran emphasized the importance of private sector job creation, pointing out that while overall job numbers are strong, there may be some slowdown in private sector job growth.
  • He disputed concerns about the potential for a slowdown in growth, arguing that the administration's policies will continue to stimulate growth and that historical precedents (such as Ronald Reagan's tax cuts) do not apply.

Statistics:

  • The administration's policies have led to an annualized economic growth rate of 2.8 percent from 2017 to 2019.
  • Revenue as a share of GDP was 17.1 percent last year, comparable to the share before the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.
  • Corporate revenue as a share of GDP increased from 1.6 to 1.9 percent under the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.
  • The CEA forecasts 2-3 percent economic growth in the coming years.

Sources:

  • Statement by Stephen Miran, Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, on This Week with George Stephanopoulos, July 6, 2025.