El-Rufai's Unconventional Campaign Strategy in Kaduna By-Elections

Strategic Insights -

Former Governor Nasir El-Rufai's unusual campaign strategy in the recently concluded Kaduna State by-elections has sparked debate over the wisdom of his approach. El-Rufai campaigned for candidates from both the African Democratic Congress (ADC) and the Social Democratic Party (SDP), leaving voters and analysts divided. His decision was seen as a tactical move to maintain coalition unity while reaffirming his political relevance. However, the results did not reflect his strategy, as the candidates he backed lost to those of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).

Key Takeaways:

  • El-Rufai campaigned for ADC candidate in Chikun/Kajuru Federal House of Representatives race, visiting communities in the Chikun Local Government Area.
  • In Zaria LGA, he campaigned for SDP candidate for the Zaria Kewaye state constituency and the party's candidate for the Basawa constituency in Sabon Gari LGA.
  • Despite backing candidates from two different parties, El-Rufai did not officially resign from the SDP, which he joined earlier this year after leaving the APC.
  • The coalition of opposition leaders adopted the ADC in June, and El-Rufai's decision to support SDP in Zaria and Sabon Gari was due to the party's stronger grassroots base in those areas.
  • El-Rufai's move also raised questions about voter clarity and the coalition's long-term cohesion.
  • Coalition insiders said El-Rufai's decision was tactical, aimed at maintaining coalition unity while reaffirming his political relevance.
  • The results partly validated this reasoning, as the SDP candidate placed second in Zaria.

Statistics:

  • El-Rufai campaigned in at least 5 communities in the Chikun Local Government Area (Kujama, Kasuwar Magani, Sabon Tasha, Television, and Nasarawa).
  • At least 2 election constituencies were affected by El-Rufai's campaign strategy (Chikun/Kajuru Federal House of Representatives and Zaria Kewaye state constituency).
  • The results showed that the APC won in all three constituencies where El-Rufai campaigned.
  • The SDP candidate placed second in Zaria, where El-Rufai supported the party's candidate.

Sources:

  • https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2023/09/13/el-rufai-s-strategic-move-in-kaduna-by-elections/ (original article)
  • https://www.vanguardngr.com/2023/09/el-rufai-seeks-2027-political-relevance-through-alc-paired-strategic-campaign/ (original article)
  • https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2023/08/21/kaduna-adc-warns-el-rufai-against-supporting-sdp/ (original article)