Electric Trucks to Disrupt Global Market by 2028: CATL's Robin Zeng Predicts Half of Sales Will Be Electric-Powered

Strategic Insights -

Robin Zeng, the billionaire head of battery giant CATL, forecasts that half of all new trucks sold in China will be electric-powered by 2028, a development that will have significant implications for the global market in heavy goods vehicles. According to Zeng, trucks powered by CATL's batteries could cut cost per tonne-kilometre by 35% compared to those fueled by petrol, making traditional truckmakers like Volvo and MAN increasingly vulnerable to Chinese competition.

Key Takeaways:

  • CATL has signed up over a dozen Chinese truckmakers to use its standardised battery, "Number 75", which has already produced 30 electric-powered models.
  • The company is building a network of stations where the batteries can be swapped out for recharging, reducing the time it takes to fill a truck with diesel from six-and-a-half minutes to five minutes.
  • CATL's new "dual-power batteries" combine two different battery chemistries, aiming to give vehicles the best features of both, such as fast charging, long range, and low cost.
  • Zeng expects the company's battery factories to work at full capacity in the next 90 days due to high demand, despite investor concerns about the impact of the US-China trade war.
  • CATL plans to use the proceeds of its Hong Kong listing to build new factories in Europe, including a €7.3bn factory in Hungary and a €4.1bn joint venture with Stellantis in Spain.

Statistics:

  • By 2028, half of all new trucks sold in China are expected to be electric-powered.
  • In the first quarter of 2025, about 14% of trucks sold in China were plug-in hybrids, fully electric, or hydrogen-powered.
  • CATL’s battery factories are working at 98% of capacity as customers clamor for supplies before the end of a 90-day tariff truce between the US and China.
  • CATL controls more than one-third of the market for EV and energy storage batteries in China.
  • The company's new factory in Hungary will have an investment of €7.3bn.
  • The joint venture with Stellantis in Spain will have an investment of €4.1bn.

Sources:

  • Financial Times: "Billionaire Robin Zeng forecasts half of trucks sold in China will be electric by 2028"
  • China Passenger Car Association: data on plug-in hybrids, fully electric, or hydrogen-powered trucks sold in China
  • CATL: press release announcing its listing in Hong Kong
  • CATL: presentation on its battery technology and production capacity