Emerging Therapies in Type 2 Diabetes Face Patent Challenges

Strategic Insights -

Decision Resources, a leading research and advisory firm for pharmaceutical and healthcare issues, reports that Merck's Januvia (sitagliptin) and Novartis's Galvus (vildagliptin) will achieve blockbuster status by 2015 for the treatment of type 2 diabetes. However, these drugs, along with Takeda's Actos (pioglitazone) and GlaxoSmithKline's Avandia (rosiglitazone), will face extensive loss of market share by 2020 due to patent expiries and the emergence of biogeneric insulins. The type 2 diabetes market will experience significant growth constraints in the second half of the 2005-2020 study period, with a potential loss of $10 billion in sales from these medications.

Key Takeaways:

  • Merck's Januvia and Novartis's Galvus will achieve blockbuster status by 2015, joining Takeda's Actos and GlaxoSmithKline's Avandia in the type 2 diabetes market.
  • Patent expiries and the emergence of biogeneric insulins will result in a significant loss of market share for these four drugs by 2020.
  • Decision Resources reports that overall growth in the type 2 diabetes market will be constrained in the second half of the 2005-2020 study period.
  • Novel drug classes, including transdermal and oral insulins, will account for 76% of the type 2 diabetes market by 2020.
  • Biogeneric insulins are expected to garner a significant share of the market, with inhaled insulins also becoming major market players during the forecast period.

Statistics:

  • By 2020, the four blockbuster diabetes medications - Merck's Januvia, Novartis's Galvus, Takeda's Actos, and GlaxoSmithKline's Avandia - are expected to lose a combined $10 billion in sales due to patent expiries and biogeneric insulins.
  • By 2015, Merck's Januvia and Novartis's Galvus are expected to achieve blockbuster status, reaching over $1 billion in sales each.
  • The type 2 diabetes market is expected to experience significant growth constraints in the second half of the 2005-2020 study period, with growth of only 3-4% per year.
  • By 2020, novel drug classes, including transdermal and oral insulins, will account for 76% of the type 2 diabetes market.

Sources:

  • "Emerging Therapies in Type 2 Diabetes" report by Decision Resources, Inc.
  • "Decision Resources, Inc." press release
  • "Biotech Business Week" article via NewsRx.com