Erdogan's Potential Visit to Ukraine: A Key Milestone in Peace Efforts

Strategic Insights -

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is invited to visit Ukraine, a move seen as a significant step towards peace efforts between Russia and Ukraine. The visit, which has not been confirmed, would follow closely on the heels of Ukrainian-Russian peace talks held in Istanbul on July 23. Erdogan has positioned himself as a mediator between the two countries during the full-scale war, and this visit would mark a significant development in his efforts to broker a peace deal. The two leaders have previously met on several occasions, with Erdogan visiting Lviv in August 2022 and meeting with Zelensky in Kyiv on February 3, 2022.

Key Takeaways:

  • Erdogan's visit to Ukraine could lead to the ratification of a long-awaited free trade agreement between Turkey and Ukraine, which was signed in 2022 and ratified by Turkey in August 2024.
  • The agreement would eliminate Turkish import duties on approximately 93.4% of industrial goods and 7.6% of agricultural products, significantly benefitting Ukraine's economy.
  • Erdogan's "peace efforts" would likely focus on facilitating talks between Russia and Ukraine, building on his previous role as a mediator in the peace process.
  • The Turkish president has expressed his willingness to host a summit between Zelensky, Putin, Trump, and himself, with Ukraine proposing the inclusion of Trump and expressed interest in attending the talks.

Statistics:

  • 93.4% of industrial goods and 7.6% of agricultural products would be exempt from Turkish import duties under the proposed free trade agreement.
  • The free trade agreement between Turkey and Ukraine was signed in 2022 and ratified by Turkey in August 2024.
  • Erdogan has previously facilitated peace talks in March 2022 and remains one of the few countries maintaining open channels with both Kyiv and Moscow.