Estimating Demand for Ambulances in Traffic Accidents with Statistical Modeling

Strategic Insights -

Researchers at Golestan University in Gorgan, Iran, have conducted a study to estimate the demand for ambulances in traffic accidents using time series modeling techniques. The study analyzed 37,409 calls that resulted in ambulance dispatch from March 2021 to March 2023. The analysis revealed that the demand rate is higher during the daytime compared to nighttime, but ambulance responses to fatal accidents occur more frequently at night. The researchers forecasted a demand range between 2400 and 800 with a 90% confidence level and between 300 and 2800 with an 80% confidence level.

Key Takeaways:

  • The study aimed to estimate the demand for ambulances in traffic accidents using operational, tactical, and strategic demand forecasts.
  • A retrospective cohort analysis of ambulance demands related to traffic incidents in Golestan Province, Iran, was conducted from March 2021 to March 2023.
  • The analysis identified a trend and seasonal patterns in the data, indicating an increase in demand during summer months.
  • Forecasting service recipients in prehospital emergency services can increase situational awareness and help manage challenges caused by overcrowding.
  • The study suggested that anticipating the surge in demand during peak periods can help plan and allocate resources effectively and minimize delays.
  • Manoochehr Babanezhad, Hassan Khorsha, Ali Mohajervatan, and Ali Choori were the primary authors of the study.
  • The research was published in the Health in Emergencies & Disasters Quarterly journal, Volume 10, Issue 4, 2025.

Statistics:

  • 37,409 ambulance calls were analyzed from March 2021 to March 2023.
  • The demand rate is higher during the daytime (2400-800 with 90% confidence level).
  • The demand range is expected to be between 300 and 2800 with an 80% confidence level.
  • The study identified a trend and seasonal patterns in the data, indicating an increase in demand during summer months.
  • The publisher for Health in Emergencies & Disasters Quarterly is Negah Institute for Scientific Communication.

Sources:

  • Estimating the Demand for Ambulances in Traffic Accidents. Health in Emergencies & Disasters Quarterly, 2025,10(4):247-258. (Health in Emergencies & Disasters Quarterly - http://hdq.uswr.ac.ir/).
  • Researchers from Golestan University Describe Research in Emergency and Disaster Research (Estimating the Demand for Ambulances in Traffic Accidents). Bioterrorism Week. July 7, 2025; p 32.