EU Agricultural Market Outlook: Production and Consumption Trends for Beef, Pork, and Dairy Products

Strategic Insights -

Agricultural markets in the European Union, particularly in the new member states (NMS), are expected to undergo significant changes between 2004 and 2011. According to a European Commission report, beef production is expected to decline due to decoupling of subsidies, while pork production is anticipated to increase in the NMS, driven by cheap feed grains and export opportunities. Beef consumption in the NMS is expected to rise, while it begins to slide in the EU-15. The demand for higher-quality beef cuts in the NMS is also expected to increase.

Key Takeaways:

  • Beef production in the EU-25 is expected to decrease due to decoupling of subsidies, reaching a level of 22.4 million MT by 2011.
  • Pork production in the EU-25 is expected to increase from 21.2 million MT in 2004 to 22.4 million MT by 2011.
  • Consumption of beef in the NMS is expected to increase by 5-10% from 2006 on, while consumption in the EU-15 starts to decline.
  • Pork consumption in the NMS is expected to increase by 8-12% from 2006 on, driven by higher demand for higher-quality cuts.
  • A shift in consumption in the NMS towards higher-quality beef and pork cuts is expected.
  • Cheap feed grains from the NMS are expected to increase the competitive advantage of NMS pork producers.
  • Decoupling of subsidies for beef production will lead to a reduction in beef production, while partially coupled support programs will sustain beef production in least favorable areas.
  • New animal welfare regulations for pigs will be implemented in new production facilities since 2003 and on all pig farms by 2013.
  • Environmental constraints will continue to impact on pig farming in the Benelux, Denmark, and France.

Statistics:

  • Beef exports are expected to halve to 170 thousand MT at the end of this period.
  • Imports are expected to increase by 20% to 580 thousand MT.
  • Beef consumption per capita in the NMS is expected to increase from 35% of consumption in the EU-15 to 40% by 2011.
  • Pork production in the EU-25 is expected to increase from 21.2 million MT in 2004 to 22.4 million MT by 2011.
  • Consumption of pork is expected to increase from 20.3 million MT in 2003 to 21.1 million MT by 2011.

Sources:

  • "Prospects for agricultural markets and Income 2004-2011 - for EU-25"
  • "Consumption trends for dairy and livestock products, and the use of feeds in production, in the CEE accession and candidate countries"
  • "The meat sector in the European Union"
  • "Animal Welfare on the Farm - Pigs"
  • "Accession boosts farm income in new Member States by more than 50%, says Eurostat"