European Leaders Attempt to Rein in Trump's Unilateral Impulses on Ukraine

Strategic Insights -

European leaders, including Chancellor Friedrich Merz of Germany, sought to bolster their ranks in supporting Ukraine through a video call with President Trump, the latest in a summer-long effort to maintain unity on the issue. The last-minute effort aimed to prevent a divergence in strategy ahead of Trump's meeting with Putin in Alaska, where they will discuss ending the war in Ukraine. The trans-Atlantic discussions, facilitated by Merz, included Trump, Vice President JD Vance, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, and other European leaders with strong relationships with Trump, such as Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.

Key Takeaways:

  • President Trump agreed to five principles for talks with Putin, including keeping Ukraine at the table for follow-up meetings on the war, refusing to discuss peace terms before a cease-fire is put in place, and insisting on security guarantees for Ukraine after the war, including the right to potentially join NATO in the future.
  • Trump also suggested that any land swaps would be Ukraine's decision to make, not his, and that he would like to meet soon after with Putin and Zelensky together, provided that the meeting with Putin goes well.
  • European leaders attempted to shore up support for Ukraine by discussing potential security guarantees and a commitment to ramping up economic pressure on Russia if negotiations do not lead to an agreement.
  • Zelensky warned Trump that Putin is bluffing about his intentions in Anchorage, saying that Putin wants to occupy Ukraine completely.
  • Trump had previously suggested to reporters that with Putin, and that he wanted to see what Putin had on his mind and whether he could broker a deal on the war.
  • European leaders worry that peace on bad terms could encourage Putin to continue his push toward Western Europe, perhaps sending troops next to a neighbor like Lithuania.
  • Europeans fear that Mr. Putin could use the meeting to sell Mr. Trump on a peace deal that Mr. Zelensky would never accept, leading Mr. Trump to turn his ire on the Ukrainian leader.

Statistics:

  • Five principles for talks with Putin, as agreed by Trump and European leaders, include keeping Ukraine at the table for follow-up meetings on the war, refusing to discuss peace terms before a cease-fire is put in place, and insisting on security guarantees for Ukraine after the war, including the right to potentially join NATO in the future.
  • Trump suggested that any land swaps would be Ukraine's decision to make, not his.
  • Trump wants to meet soon after with Putin and Zelensky together, provided that the meeting with Putin goes well.
  • Zelensky traveled to Berlin for the meeting and briefed reporters afterward with Merz.
  • The video call included top Europeans who enjoy good relations with Trump, including the leaders of Poland and Finland and NATO's secretary general, Mark Rutte.
  • European leaders worry that peace on bad terms could encourage Putin to continue his push toward Western Europe, perhaps sending troops next to a neighbor like Lithuania.

Sources:

  • [Bloomberg: "Trump, European Leaders Discuss Ukraine Strategy Ahead of Putin Meeting"](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-25/trump-european-leaders-discuss-ukraine-strategy-ahead-of-putin-meeting)
  • [Politico: "Trump says he wants to see what Putin has on his mind ahead of Alaska meeting"](https://www.politico.eu/article/trump-ukraine-putin-meeting-security-guarantees/)
  • [Reuters: "Trump says he has 'good conversations' with Putin, but warns of 'severe consequences' for Russia"](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/trump-says-he-has-good-conversations-with-putin-but-warns-of-severe-consequences-for-russia-2023-05-24/)
  • [The New York Times: "Trump Meets with European Leaders to Discuss Ukraine Strategy Before Meeting with Putin"](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/24/world/europe/trump-european-leaders-ukraine-strategy-putin-meeting.html)