Europe's Most Dangerous Security Crisis Since World War II: What's at Stake

Strategic Insights -

As President Vladimir Putin recognizes Ukraine's breakaway eastern regions and orders in Russian troops as "peacekeepers," Europe is thrust into its most critical security crisis since the second world war. This development is more than a simple invasion; it represents a denial of Ukraine's right to exist and strikes at the heart of the post-cold war settlement that allows European states to choose their own destinies.

Key Takeaways:

  • Putin's recognition of the breakaway regions and deployment of Russian troops marks a denial of Ukraine's right to exist and violates international law.
  • The move repudiates the Minsk agreement, which has been the basis of efforts to resolve the conflict around the two entities since 2014.
  • Putin's actions are a clear attempt to redraw the continent's security architecture in Russia's favor, marking an assault on the rules-based international system.
  • The US and European allies have ruled out direct military confrontation over Ukraine but should not hesitate to roll out punitive economic sanctions.
  • Western allies should impose the full package of measures they have discussed, including sanctions on Russian debt, banks, and energy companies.
  • The Nato alliance should take steps to reassure and strengthen its eastern flanks, such as conducting freedom of navigation exercises in the Baltic Sea.
  • Imposing the kind of sanctions discussed will entail undoubted dangers, including potential retaliation from cyber attacks and energy disruptions.

Statistics:

  • Up to 190,000 Russian troops are around Ukraine, according to western intelligence agencies.
  • Russia has had a presence in the separatist regions for eight years, with the conflict unfolding according to an obviously pre-planned script.
  • The shortage of natural gas in storage leaves Europe vulnerable to potential disruptions.
  • The Nato alliance has the mutual security guarantees in place, which will trigger if any encroachment into Nato territory occurs.

Sources:

  • "The Times of London"
  • A previously unnamed "Report"