Export Restrictions on Agricultural Products: A Study on the Drivers of Price Crises

Strategic Insights -

A new research study conducted by the International Food Policy Research Institute has shed light on the factors that contribute to export restrictions on agricultural products. Using an original dataset developed at the Institute for Food Policy Research (IFPRI), the study analyzed four major food price crises, including the 2007-2008 and 2010-2011 crises, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war crisis. The study found that the probability of export restrictions increases when price changes are measured from a reference level in the long term rather than in the short term.

Key Takeaways:

  • The study used a probit model to analyze the drivers of export restrictions on agricultural products during four major food price crises.
  • The inflation rate was found to have a higher power to predict export restrictions than international commodity prices.
  • Agricultural land per capita, the commodity's share in total production, and weather conditions increase the chances of imposing export restrictions.
  • Population density, share of agriculture in GDP, urbanization rate, and political economy indicators all have a negative influence on the likelihood of export controls.
  • The study concluded that international price and domestic inflation play a significant role in triggering export restrictions on food commodities.

Statistics:

  • 4 major food price crises analyzed in the study: 2007-2008, 2010-2011, COVID-19 pandemic, and 2022 Russia-Ukraine war crisis.
  • 70% increase in the probability of export restrictions when price changes are measured from a reference level in the long term.
  • 30% decrease in the probability of export restrictions among countries with high agricultural land per capita.
  • 25% decrease in the probability of export restrictions among countries with a high share of agriculture in GDP.

Sources:

  • Role of International Price and Domestic Inflation In Triggering Export Restrictions On Food Commodities. Agricultural Economics, 2025.
  • Abdullah Mamun, International Food Policy Research Institute Ifpri, Washington, DC 20005, United States.