Fate of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty Hangs in the Balance

Strategic Insights -

A month-long conference at the United Nations will determine the future of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, which has been in effect for 25 years and has helped contain the spread of nuclear weapons. While the Clinton administration favors making the treaty permanent, it appears to lack enough support to ensure this outcome. The treaty has been credited with preventing the development of nuclear weapons in many countries, but its continued existence is threatened by the lack of progress in nuclear disarmament.

Key Takeaways:

  • The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty has been in effect for 25 years and has been credited with helping contain the spread of nuclear weapons.
  • The treaty has 175 signatories, but three countries - Israel, Pakistan, and India - have acquired the capacity to make nuclear weapons without joining the treaty.
  • Secretary of State Warren Christopher believes that making the treaty permanent is the only way to ensure its continued effectiveness.
  • Egypt's Hosni Mubarak has requested that the United States put more pressure on Israel to forego nuclear weapons.
  • U.S. officials claim they will have enough votes to support an indefinite extension of the treaty by early May, but some arms control experts believe the Clinton administration has not done enough to convince dissenters of its sincerity in seeking a world without nuclear weapons.
  • The START treaties have reduced the number of warheads in the U.S. and Russian arsenals, but James Leonard, a former arms control negotiator, believes there should be even deeper cuts.

Statistics:

  • 25 years: the treaty has been in effect
  • 175: the number of countries that have signed the treaty
  • 3,000-3,500: the number of warheads in the U.S. and Russian arsenals as a result of the START II treaty
  • May: the time by which U.S. officials claim they will have enough votes to support an indefinite extension of the treaty

Sources:

  • "Today at the United Nations a month-long conference opens that will determine the future of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty." - NPR's Bob Edwards
  • "Those predictions have not come to pass, in part, says Secretary of State Warren Christopher, because of the Non-Proliferation Treaty." - NPR's Mike Shuster
  • "A few additional states - Israel, Pakistan, and India - have acquired the capacity to make nuclear weapons. They have not joined the NPT, but 175 nations have, agreeing by that act to forego the development of nuclear weapons if the nuclear-weapons states make a good-faith effort to move toward complete disarmament some day." - Secretary of State Christopher
  • "We remain among the most enthusiastic supporters of the treaty. We consider it one of the billets of the stable world order; hence, we would like to enforce the moral authority of the NPT." - Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak
  • "Either the NPT's going to continue forever or it's going to stop at some point. Some countries want to have the right to stop it at some point because they don't think there's been enough progress in nuclear disarmament." - Thomas Graham, chief U.S. negotiator