Flash Floods and Glacial Lake Outburst Floods Forecast in Pakistan

Strategic Insights -

Heavy monsoon rains have caused 64 deaths and 113 injuries across Pakistan in the past week, with the northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province reporting the highest number of 23 deaths, including 10 children. The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) has warned provincial and local authorities to stay high alert throughout the monsoon season, particularly in mountainous and low-lying areas.

Key Takeaways:

  • The NDMA warned of flash floods, Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs), and urban flooding in different parts of the country, with low to moderate rainfall expected until July 5.
  • The most affected regions are upper catchments of major rivers, including Central and Lower Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Azad Jammu and Kashmir, and northeastern parts of Punjab, particularly Lahore.
  • Flash floods in riverine areas may pose threats to nearby settlements, and the risk of GLOFs and landslides has increased in Gilgit-Baltistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa due to ongoing high temperatures and glacier and snow melt.
  • The situation is further aggravated by incoming moist currents and rainfall, and vulnerable glacial valleys and narrow mountain passes may face sudden GLOF events, flash floods, road blockages, and disruptions to infrastructure and tourism.
  • The authority urged the public to take precautionary measures, warning residents against unnecessary travel, and advised farmers to manage their agricultural activities keeping in view the weather forecast.
  • Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) forecast significant intensification of monsoon activity across the country beginning from the evening of July 5, with widespread rain, thunderstorms, and the possibility of flash floods and urban flooding in several regions.
  • In Punjab and Islamabad, widespread rain and thunderstorms with heavy falls are expected from July 5-10 in cities such as Islamabad, Rawalpindi, Lahore, Sialkot, Gujranwala, Faisalabad, and others.

Statistics:

  • 64 deaths and 113 injuries caused by heavy monsoon rains in the past week.
  • 23 deaths reported in the northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, including 10 children.
  • 14 victims swept away by flash floods in Swat Valley since June 26, 22.
  • 45 children, 37 men, and 31 women among those injured throughout the country.
  • Heavy rains continue to batter parts of Punjab and KP, with low to moderate rainfall expected until July 5.
  • Flash floods in riverine areas may pose threats to nearby settlements, and the risk of GLOFs and landslides has increased in Gilgit-Baltistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

Sources:

  • National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA)
  • Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD)
  • Report from Islamabad on July 3, 2025.