Florida's Surgeon General Downplays Vaccine Mandates, Science Suggests High Costs

Scientists have done the numbers, and the result is unsettling: lifting vaccine mandates could lead to a significant increase in vaccine-preventable diseases. In Florida, a 15% decline in vaccinations against measles over 25 years could result in 1 million measles cases, according to a study by infectious disease forecasters at Stanford University. The state's large population and tourism industry make it particularly vulnerable.

The study's lead author, Dr. Mathew Kiang, warns that unvaccinated groups in the US are like "tinder," and vaccines are like "fire protection." For every 1,000 measles cases, there are 1-3 deaths from breathing complications or brain swelling. If there were 1 million cases, that would translate to approximately 1,000 deaths.

Another analysis, modeled by researchers at the University of Florida's Center for Statistics and Quantitative Infectious Diseases, suggests that even a small drop in measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccine coverage among kindergartners in Florida could raise the risk of measles spread and the size of outbreaks. A 2% drop in coverage would result in an 8% increase in the likelihood of an infectious child spreading the disease, and a 14% increase in the average outbreak size.

Vaccination rates have been falling nationwide due to increased parental opt-outs and vaccine skepticism. In many areas, vaccination rates have fallen below the 95% threshold needed to create herd immunity against measles. Thanks to vaccines, the US eliminated measles as a regularly transmitting disease in 2000, but at current levels of vaccination, it will entrench itself again within 20 years.

Key Takeaways:

Lifting vaccine mandates in Florida could lead to 1 million measles cases over 25 years, according to a Stanford University study.
A 15% drop in vaccinations against measles over 25 years would increase the number of deaths from 1-3 for every 1,000 cases to approximately 1,000 deaths for every 1 million cases.
Vaccination rates have been falling nationwide due to increased parental opt-outs and vaccine skepticism.
In many areas, vaccination rates have fallen below the 95% threshold needed to create herd immunity against measles.
A 2% drop in measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccine coverage among kindergartners in Florida could raise the risk of measles spread and the size of outbreaks by 8% and 14%, respectively.
The US eliminated measles as a regularly transmitting disease in 2000, but it will likely become a regular risk again within 20 years if current vaccination rates continue.
A 50% drop in childhood vaccinations in the US could result in 51.2 million cases of measles over 25 years, 9.9 million cases of rubella, 4.3 million cases of polio, and 200 cases of diphtheria.
A 50% drop in vaccination rates could also result in an estimated 51,200 cases of brain damage from measles, 5,400 cases of post-polio paralysis, 10.3 million hospitalizations, and 159,200 deaths.

Statistics:

1 million measles cases could result in approximately 1,000 deaths.
A 2% drop in measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccine coverage among kindergartners in Florida could raise the risk of measles spread and the size of outbreaks by 8% and 14%, respectively.
51.2 million cases of measles over 25 years could result in 51,200 cases of brain damage, 5,400 cases of post-polio paralysis, 10.3 million hospitalizations, and 159,200 deaths.
A 50% drop in childhood vaccinations in the US could result in 51.2 million cases of measles, 9.9 million cases of rubella, 4.3 million cases of polio, and 200 cases of diphtheria.

Sources:

Stanford University study published in JAMA: "Estimating the Future Burden of Vaccine-Preventable Diseases in the United States"
University of Florida's Center for Statistics and Quantitative Infectious Diseases analysis: "The Impact of Vaccine Coverage on the Spread of Measles"
CDC: "National Immunization Survey"
KFF and Washington Post survey: "Parents' Views on Vaccine Mandates in Public Schools"