Foodservice Industry Outperforms Forecasts Despite Challenges

Strategic Insights -

Canada's foodservice industry has defied early expectations, boasting a 6.9% increase in commercial foodservice revenue in the first seven months of 2025, with a projected 2.1% growth in real commercial foodservice sales for 2025. However, the sector is not immune to the effects of inflation, with 74% of Canadians cutting discretionary spending, including eating out and take-out or delivery expenses. Despite these challenges, the industry continues to add jobs, with 23,600 new positions created in the first nine months of 2025.

Key Takeaways:

  • The foodservice sector added 23,600 jobs in the first nine months of 2025, outperforming the broader private sector.
  • Commercial foodservice revenue was up 6.9% in the first seven months of 2025, but real commercial foodservice sales are expected to grow by 2.1% in 2025 and decline by 0.7% in 2026.
  • 74% of Canadians are cutting discretionary spending due to cost-of-living increases, with eating out and take-out or delivery being the most common expenses cut.
  • Foodservice businesses face significant operating cost increases, with insurance costs up 14%, food costs up 13%, and labour costs up 11% over the past two years.
  • Commercial foodservice sales are projected to decelerate to 1.6% growth in Q2 2026, before gradually recovering to an average of 3.6% in 2027.

Statistics:

  • 23,600 jobs added in the first nine months of 2025
  • 6.9% increase in commercial foodservice revenue in the first seven months of 2025
  • 2.1% growth in real commercial foodservice sales projected for 2025, and a 0.7% decline in 2026
  • 74% of Canadians cutting discretionary spending due to cost-of-living increases
  • 56% of Canadians cutting eating out expenses, and 50% cutting take-out or delivery expenses
  • Insurance costs up 14% over the past two years
  • Food costs up 13% over the past two years
  • Labour costs up 11% over the past two years

Sources:

  • Restaurants Canada's Q3 Quarterly Report, 2025
  • Restaurants Canada statement on cost-of-living increases, Nov. 3, 2025
  • Restaurants Canada, "Food is Food" petition, foodisfood.ca
  • About Restaurants Canada, restaurantscanada.org