France's Indo-Pacific Ambitions Dashed by US-Australian Alliance

Strategic Insights -

The meeting between the leaders of the US, UK, and Australia on the fringes of the G7 summit on June 12 appeared innocuous, but it marked the beginning of a strategic alliance that would reshape security in Asia and dash France's Indo-Pacific ambitions. The Aukus alliance, announced on September 15, would provide Australia with nuclear-powered submarines, undercutting France's $50 billion contract to build diesel-powered submarines for Australia. France's diplomatic fury was intense, with the recall of ambassadors from Washington and Canberra and a push to postpone a key EU-US trade meeting.

Key Takeaways:

  • The Aukus alliance between the US, UK, and Australia marks a significant shift in security dynamics in Asia, undermining France's Indo-Pacific ambitions.
  • France's $50 billion contract to build diesel-powered submarines for Australia was canceled, with the US providing nuclear-powered submarines instead.
  • The alliance was driven by Australia's concerns over China's military might in the region and its desire to cement a broader alliance with the US.
  • Canberra had been looking to back out of the French contract for months due to cost concerns and slow progress in creating local jobs.
  • The French had their own nuclear propulsion technology, which they offered to Australia in June, but it was not chosen for the Aukus project.
  • The US propulsion technology is one of the "crown jewels of the American military" and allows submarines to evade sonar detection.
  • The Aukus alliance signals to Europe that the US is not perceived as a global player with whom deep co-operation is possible, at least in the Indo-Pacific.
  • Australia's Prime Minister Scott Morrison and UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson's personal relationship played a key role in the development of the alliance.
  • France's diplomatic response has been intense, with the recall of ambassadors and a push to postpone a key EU-US trade meeting.
  • The crisis has opened the biggest rift among western allies since the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003.

Statistics:

  • $50 billion: The value of France's contract to build diesel-powered submarines for Australia, which was canceled due to the Aukus alliance.
  • 12: The number of diesel-powered submarines that Australia had ordered from France.
  • 1958: The year in which the UK and US first shared nuclear technology.
  • 2003: The year in which the US-led invasion of Iraq sparked one of the biggest rifts among western allies since World War II.
  • January 2021: The month in which Scott Morrison set up a small cabinet committee to explore a US deal, which led to the Aukus alliance.

Sources:

  • The Financial Times
  • The Atlantic Council
  • The Center for a New American Security
  • The Australian government
  • The British government
  • The French government
  • The US government
  • Lockheed Martin
  • France's Institut Montaigne
  • Former UK ambassador to France, Sir Peter Ricketts