French Voters Head to Polls for Historic EU Referendum

Strategic Insights -

French voters are heading to the polls today to decide the fate of the European Union constitution, a landmark document that requires unanimous approval from all 25 EU member states to become binding. The outcome of the referendum, which has been estimated to be a narrow "no" vote by a majority of 52-56 percent, could have significant implications for the future of Europe and the global economy. The constitution, which is 460 articles long, aims to unify the EU economically, militarily, and diplomatically through a single treaty, but its detractors see it as a tool for creating a monolithic European superstate that would trample upon individual national sovereignty.

Key Takeaways:

  • The European Union constitution requires unanimous approval from all 25 EU member states to become binding, making the French referendum a crucial test of the treaty's fate.
  • Opinion polls project a narrow "no" vote, with the "no" campaign winning by a majority of 52-52 percent.
  • The constitution aims to unify the EU economically, militarily, and diplomatically through a single treaty, but its detractors see it as a tool for creating a monolithic European superstate.
  • The rejection of the constitution in France is likely to trigger a domino effect of "no" votes starting with a similar referendum in the Netherlands on Wednesday and affecting planned votes across Europe over the next year.
  • French voters are expressing not only opposition to the constitution but also to the political establishment that supports it within both the governing, center-right party of Chirac and the established leadership of the opposition Socialist party.
  • The debate has sharply divided the French, with arguments for and against the constitution being sounded out on nearly every street corner, cafe, and dinner table.
  • Dissident members of the Socialist party oppose the treaty because they feel it betrays the party's historic commitment to tempering the unfettered forces of US and British capitalism, while smaller right-wing parties have played up what they see as a threat to Europe from Muslim immigrants flooding European cities.

Statistics:

  • 52-56 percent: The estimated majority of voters who plan to vote "no" on the EU constitution.
  • 25: The number of EU member states that must approve the constitution for it to become binding.
  • 460: The number of articles in the proposed European Union constitution.
  • 10 percent: The steady rate of unemployment in France for the past decade.
  • 15 percent: The percentage of undecided voters, according to opinion polls.

Sources:

  • Byline: Charles M. Sennott, "France holds pivotal vote on EU treaty," The Boston Globe, May 29.
  • Opinion polls cited in the article.