Fringe Playoff Contenders: A Look at AFC and NFC Teams on the Bubble

Strategic Insights -

As the NFL playoff picture becomes clearer, several fringe contenders remain in the hunt for the final postseason spots. In the AFC, the Buffalo Bills, Cincinnati Bengals, and Tennessee Titans are locks, but teams like the New England Patriots, New York Jets, and Jacksonville Jaguars still have a shot. In the NFC, the Philadelphia Eagles and Minnesota Vikings are dominant, but teams like the Detroit Lions, Seattle Seahawks, and Green Bay Packers are still in the mix. Here are the key takeaways from each team's chances:

Key Takeaways:

  • New England Patriots: Their defense remains the best in the league, but their offense is broken and unlikely to improve in time for the playoffs. Chances: Time to turn to the draft
  • New York Jets: Their defense is excellent, but their quarterback situation is a concern. Chances: Doomed by the quarterback room
  • Jacksonville Jaguars: They're young, explosive, and maddeningly inconsistent, with Trevor Lawrence leading the way. Chances: Not great, but could be worse
  • Las Vegas Raiders: They've found their footing and have a good chance to beat anyone on their schedule. Chances: Creeping steadily upwards
  • Detroit Lions: They're the hottest team in the league, with a powerful offense and improving defense. Chances: Just shy of 50/50
  • Seattle Seahawks: They can score with anyone, but their defense is declining and they need to win out to have a shot. Chances: Must win in Arrowhead (oof!)
  • Green Bay Packers: They need a Christmas miracle to make the playoffs. Chances: Need a Christmas miracle
  • NFC South trio: The winner of this division will host a playoff game, but any of the teams still have a path to make the postseason. Chances: One team will make the playoffs: the question is which one

Statistics:

  • The Patriots defense has been the best in the league since Week 5, with an average EPA per play of +1.2.
  • The Jets' Sauce Gardner is the top cornerback in the league, and the team's defense is among the best in the NFC.
  • The Jaguars have shifted to the third point along the timeline, where young teams begin to show signs of life and inconsistency.
  • The Raiders have averaged 27 points per game over their past five games, with a 4-1 record.
  • The Lions have hit more explosive pass plays through the air than any offense in the NFL other than the Dolphins.
  • The Seahawks have scored more than 350 total points, but have a net-zero point differential.

Sources:

  • [ESPN]
  • [NFL.com]
  • [The Athletic]
  • [Sports Illustrated]
  • [USA Today]
  • [Boston Herald]