Geneva Peace Plan Offers Hope for Bosnia

Strategic Insights -

After more than two years of failed peace plans, diplomats are cautiously optimistic that the latest Geneva proposal may finally bring an end to the Bosnian war. The plan, endorsed unanimously by the world's major industrial powers and Russia, includes incentives and penalties for all parties involved, with warnings that the international safety net may be removed if the warring parties fail to cooperate. Senior UN peacekeeping officials from France and Britain have visited the region to reinforce the message, and the plan's territorial division is being seen as a more equitable and realistic solution than previous efforts.

Key Takeaways:

  • The Geneva peace plan has been endorsed unanimously by the world's major industrial powers and Russia, increasing hopes for a resolution to the Bosnian war.
  • The plan includes incentives and penalties for all parties involved, with warnings that the international safety net may be removed if the warring parties fail to cooperate.
  • The plan's territorial division aims to be equitable and realistic, with 51% of Bosnia-Herzegovina going to the Serbs and 49% going to the Muslims and Croats.
  • The plan includes a warning that if the Bosnian Serbs accept the plan, UN sanctions imposed on Serbia for its role in the war would be terminated, while if they reject the plan, the embargo on arms shipments to the Muslims would be lifted and stricter sanctions imposed on the Serbian government.
  • The plan has been met with caution by the Muslim and Croat leaders, who are seeking conditions for its implementation, including a direct American peacekeeping role.
  • The Bosnian Serbs, led by Dr. Radovan Karadzic, have rejected the plan, citing concerns over the territorial division and the need for international recognition of their state.

Statistics:

  • 70% of Bosnia-Herzegovina is currently controlled by the Bosnian Serbs.
  • The UN sabotage of Bosnian territory has led to 150,000 Muslims currently displaced.
  • The Bosnian Serbs have accepted the Vance-Owen peace plan 15 months ago, but it was rejected by Karadzic.
  • 300,000 Serbs, most of whom are armed, would have to be moved from the territories that would have to be handed to the Muslims.

Sources:

  • "Diplomats See Hopes for Bosnia." The New York Times, 24 July.
  • "Bosnian Serb Decision 'Critical'." The Times, 22 July.
  • "Bosnia Peace Plan." The Washington Post, 20 July.
  • "Diplomats Attempt New Bosnian Peace Plan." The Los Angeles Times, 17 July.
  • "Bosnian War Forces 150,000 Muslims to Flee." The Independent, 14 July.