Global Commodity Prices Projected to Fall to Six-Year Low in 2026

Strategic Insights -

The World Bank has forecast a decline in global commodity prices, marking the fourth consecutive year of decline. According to the organization's latest commodity markets outlook, prices are expected to drop by seven percent in both 2025 and 2026. The decline is driven by weak global economic growth, a growing oil surplus, and persistent policy uncertainty. Despite the recent declines, commodity prices remain above pre-pandemic levels, with prices in 2025 and 2026 projected to be 23 percent and 14 percent higher, respectively, than in 2019.

Key Takeaways:

  • The World Bank projects global commodity prices to fall to a six-year low in 2026, marking the fourth consecutive year of decline.
  • Prices are expected to drop by seven percent in both 2025 and 2026, driven by weak global economic growth, a growing oil surplus, and persistent policy uncertainty.
  • Commodity prices remain above pre-pandemic levels, with prices in 2025 and 2026 projected to be 23 percent and 14 percent higher, respectively, than in 2019.
  • Energy prices are forecast to fall by 12 percent in 2025 and a further 10 percent in 2026, with Brent crude oil prices expected to fall from an average of $68 in 2025 to $60 in 2026.
  • Food prices are also easing, with declines of 6.1 percent projected in 2025 and 0.3 percent in 2026, with soybean prices falling in 2025 due to record production and trade tensions.
  • Fertiliser prices are projected to surge 21 percent in 2025, reflecting higher input costs and trade restrictions, before easing five percent in 2026.
  • Precious metals have reached record highs in 2025, fuelled by demand for safe-haven assets and continued central bank purchases.
  • The price of gold is expected to increase by 42 percent in 2025 and a further percent in 2026, leaving gold prices at nearly double their 2015-2019 average.

Statistics:

  • Global commodity prices to fall by 7 percent in 2025 and 2026.
  • Energy prices forecast to fall by 12 percent in 2025 and 10 percent in 2026.
  • Food prices to decline by 6.1 percent in 2025 and 0.3 percent in 2026.
  • Soybean prices to fall in 2025 due to record production and trade tensions.
  • Fertiliser prices to surge 21 percent in 2025, reflecting higher input costs and trade restrictions.
  • Price of gold to increase by 42 percent in 2025 and a further percent in 2026.
  • Gold prices to reach nearly double their 2015-2019 average in 2026.

Sources:

  • World Bank Group's latest commodity markets outlook.
  • World Bank Group's chief economist and senior vice president for development economics, Indermit Gill.
  • World Bank's deputy chief economist and Director of the Prospects Group, Ayhan Kose.