Global Famine Looms as Russia's Ukraine Invasion Halts Grain Exports

Strategic Insights -

The United Nations' special rapporteur on the right to food, Michael Fakhri, has warned of a global famine as a result of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which has disrupted crucial grain exports via the Black Sea. Fakhri stated that for the last three years, global rates of hunger and famine have been on the rise, and the Russian invasion has now triggered a risk of imminent famine and starvation in more places around the world. Ukraine's grain exports have stalled, with at least 100 ships stranded in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov, prompting calls for Russia to open a "blue corridor" to allow their exit.

Key Takeaways:

  • The UN's special rapporteur on the right to food, Michael Fakhri, warned of a global famine as a result of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, citing a rise in global hunger and famine rates.
  • Ukraine's grain exports have stalled, with at least 100 ships stranded in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov, according to German media.
  • The International Grains Council (IGC) downgraded Ukraine's grain export forecast by 23% due to the suspension of port activities, from 62.8 million tonnes to 47.8 million tonnes.
  • The IGC stated that commercial Black Sea port loadings are currently suspended in Ukraine, limiting exports, and that attempts to find other solutions are unlikely to satisfy unmet demand.
  • The Moscow-based Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) has temporarily banned grains exports to former Soviet states due to concerns about the speed of grain exports.
  • Russia and Ukraine's combined wheat exports are crucial to countries such as Egypt, Turkey, Bangladesh, and Iran, who get 60% of their grain imports from the two countries, according to the UN.
  • The loss of access to grains and pulses from Ukraine could increase the cost of buying food by up to $23 million a month, threatening underfunded crises in Yemen, Ethiopia, Afghanistan, and Syria, according to the World Food Programme.

Statistics:

  • 100 ships are reportedly stranded in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov, Ukraine.
  • Ukraine's grain export forecast was downgraded by 23%, from 62.8 million tonnes to 47.8 million tonnes, according to the International Grains Council.
  • 60% of the grain imports of countries such as Egypt, Turkey, Bangladesh, and Iran come from Russia and Ukraine, according to the UN.
  • $23 million: the potential monthly increase in the cost of buying food due to the loss of access to grains and pulses from Ukraine, according to the World Food Programme.

Sources:

  • Michael Fakhri, UN's special rapporteur on the right to food
  • Jörg-Simon Immerz, head of grain trading at Germany's largest agricultural trader BayWa
  • International Grains Council (IGC)
  • Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR)
  • David Beasley, head of the World Food Programme
  • UN
  • German media
  • World Food Programme