Global Trade Expands Despite Slower Growth in the First Half of 2025

Strategic Insights -

Global trade expanded by an estimated $300 billion in the first half of 2025, according to the latest Global Trade Update by the UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD). The report noted that global trade rose by about 1.5% in the first quarter, with growth expected to accelerate to 2% in the second quarter. Trade in services remained the main engine of annual growth, rising 9% over the last four quarters. However, price increases contributed to the overall rise in trade value, with prices for traded goods edging up in the first quarter and likely continuing to rise in the second quarter.

Key Takeaways:

  • Global trade expanded by an estimated $300 billion in the first half of 2025, despite a slower pace of growth.
  • Trade in services remained the main engine of annual growth, rising 9% over the last four quarters.
  • Developed economies outpaced developing countries in the first quarter of 2025, reversing recent trends that had favored the Global South.
  • The US posted a larger trade deficit, with a $360 billion annual deficit, while China and the EU recorded growing surpluses.
  • Bilateral gaps widened between the US and key partners, including China, the EU, and Vietnam.
  • New US tariffs and retaliatory measures have raised the risk of trade fragmentation and intensified domestic subsidies and inward-looking industrial policies.
  • Regional integration is strengthening, and services trade may continue its robust growth.
  • Continued resilience in the second half of 2025 will depend on policy clarity, geo-economic developments, and supply chain adaptability.

Statistics:

  • Global trade expanded by $300 billion in the first half of 2025.
  • Global trade rose by 1.5% in the first quarter, with growth expected to accelerate to 2% in the second quarter.
  • Trade in services rose 9% over the last four quarters.
  • Prices for traded goods edged up in the first quarter and likely continued to rise in the second quarter.
  • US imports surged 14% in the first quarter, while EU exports jumped 6%.
  • Developing countries saw a 2% drop in imports, and South-South trade stagnated overall.
  • Africa bucked the trend, with exports up 5% and intraregional trade growing 16% year on year.
  • The US recorded a $360 billion annual trade deficit.
  • China and the EU recorded growing surpluses.
  • Bilateral gaps widened between the US and key partners, including China ($360 billion annual deficit), the EU ($276 billion), and Vietnam ($116 billion).

Sources:

  • Global Trade Update by the UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD)