Gloves Come Off in Democratic Nominating Contests

Strategic Insights -

Campaign strategists for Senator John Edwards, General Wesley K. Clark, and Howard Dean are intensively discussing how far they can go in taking on front-runner Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts without hurting themselves. If Mr. Kerry is not challenged aggressively soon, his momentum from victories in Iowa and New Hampshire could carry him to the nomination before spring. Strategists are aware that a real attack, delivered in a 30-second advertisement, could sink the candidate behind it, as Dr. Dean and Representative Richard A. Gephardt of Missouri learned in Iowa.

Key Takeaways:

  • Strategists with Senator John Edwards, General Wesley K. Clark, and Howard Dean are contemplating how to challenge front-runner Senator John Kerry without incurring negative consequences, considering that a real attack could sink the candidate behind it.
  • Since the Iowa caucuses, many voters have told pollsters they are making their choices based on "electability," indicating that Democrats would rather see candidates take on President Bush than each other.
  • The field is proceeding gingerly, with Senator Edwards releasing his latest advertisement to keep Senator Kerry from overtaking him in South Carolina, a state he has said he must win.
  • General Clark has made a new push against opponents, releasing his first commercial to indirectly criticize them, but is constrained by the need to maintain a positive campaign.
  • Howard Dean has shown the most willingness to take on Senator Kerry, but is not currently advertising anywhere and is considering how and when to re-emerge.
  • Strategists agree that time is running short and that candidates will have to decide if they are willing to take the risk of engaging in a real fight, potentially harming themselves in the process.

Statistics:

  • 30 seconds: The length of a typical television advertisement.
  • Iowa and New Hampshire: The two states where front-runner Senator John Kerry secured victories before spring.
  • South Carolina: A state Senator John Edwards has said he must win, where he is attempting to keep Senator Kerry from overtaking him.
  • 50%: The percentage of voters who have told pollsters they are making their choices based on "electability," indicating that Democrats prefer to see candidates take on President Bush rather than each other.

Sources:

  • "John Edwards, Trying to Regain Footing, Channels Family's Struggles." The New York Times.
  • "Gephardt's Iowa Caucuses Farce." The New York Times. February 3, 2004.
  • "Clark Takes On Kerry With Indirect Jabs." The New York Times.