Goldman Sachs Downgrades Allianz SE to 'Neutral', Cuts Price Target

Strategic Insights -

Goldman Sachs has lowered its rating on Allianz SE, a Munich, Germany-based financial services company, from 'buy' to 'neutral', citing the company's recent strong share price performance and now trading at the top end of its historical valuation range. The broker also reduced its 2025 earnings per share estimates by 8% and lowered its 2026 to 2029 forecasts by 3%. Despite this, Goldman Sachs still sees some potential benefits for Allianz's asset management business from central bank policy rate easing.

Key Takeaways:

  • Goldman Sachs downgrades Allianz SE to 'neutral' from 'buy', citing the company's strong share price performance and high valuation multiples.
  • The broker cuts 2025 earnings per share estimates by 8% to reflect a higher Property & Casualty attritional loss ratio and lower asset management earnings.
  • Goldman Sachs reduces 2026 to 2029 forecasts by 3%, indicating a more cautious outlook for the company's future growth.
  • The updated estimates are broadly in line with Allianz's 2025 to 2027 planning targets, but 1% to 3% below Visible Alpha consensus EPS estimates.
  • Goldman Sachs notes limited scope for catalysts in the near term, citing the firm's first year of its 2025 to 2027 financial plan.
  • The broker still sees potential benefits from central bank policy rate easing for Allianz's asset management business, but notes market volatility due to US tariffs has complicated the picture.
  • Goldman Sachs prefers AXA SA as its multi-line name, citing undemanding valuation and a EUR3.8bn buyback.

Statistics:

  • Current stock price: EUR349.00
  • 12-month change: up 30%
  • Price target: EUR374 (down from EUR393)
  • One-year forward Datastream consensus PE: 12.3 times
  • 10-year average PE: 10.1x
  • 2025 earnings per share estimates: reduced by 8%
  • 2026 to 2029 forecasts: reduced by 3%

Sources:

  • [Goldman Sachs]
  • [Alliance News]
  • [Allianz SE]