Government's Aviation Policy Threatens Climate Change Targets

Strategic Insights -

The government's decision to allow airport expansion, despite claims of climate change targets, will likely result in a significant increase in greenhouse gas emissions. According to a report commissioned by the Department for Environment, carbon emissions from aviation will rise by between 22m and 36m tonnes by 2030. This is despite the government's promise to cut carbon dioxide emissions by 60% between 1990 and 2050. The emissions from air transport are expected to increase from 4.6 to 15.7 million tonnes of carbon by 2050, accounting for 24% of the target for the whole economy.

Key Takeaways:

  • The government's decision to allow airport expansion will lead to a significant increase in greenhouse gas emissions from aviation, contradicting its climate change targets.
  • The Department for Transport's "best case" figures estimate that emissions from air transport will rise to 15.7 million tonnes of carbon by 2050, accounting for 24% of the target for the whole economy.
  • The Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research estimates that the UK's aeroplane emissions are likely to amount to 32 million tonnes of carbon by 2050, or 49% of the target.
  • The report produced for the Department for Environment by Manchester Metropolitan University calculates that emissions will rise to between 29.8 and 44.4 million tonnes of carbon by 2050, or 46-68% of the target.
  • The government's plan to incorporate aviation emissions into the European emissions trading scheme will not work, as it will be impossible for the airlines to cut their emissions to stay within the scheme.
  • The only certain means by which the growth of flights can be curtailed is by restricting the capacity of the UK's airports.
  • The government's policy of doubling air-passenger duty and providing subsidies to regional airports contradicts its climate change targets.

Statistics:

  • The UK is expected to have 465 million passengers by 2030, up from 228 million in 2006.
  • The number of passengers in 2030 will increase by 104%, despite claims that emissions will be reduced by 60% by 2050.
  • The government's emissions trading scheme will allow airlines to buy carbon permits from other industries, who can cut their output more cheaply.
  • The emissions trading scheme will recognize only carbon and not other greenhouse gases produced by aircraft, such as nitrous oxide and methane.

Sources:

  • "EU emissions trading: the 'grandfathering' of polluters" by The Guardian
  • "Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Commercial Aviation" by The Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
  • "Air Travel and Climate Change" by Manchester Metropolitan University
  • "UK Aviation and Climate Change" by the House of Commons Environmental Audit Committee
  • "Aviation and the Environment" by the European Commission