Grain Futures Trade Lower Amid Drought and Export Projections

Strategic Insights -

Brazil's Agriculture Ministry announced that the country's 2004-05 soybean crop will total 57.0 million metric tons, lower than previous estimates, due to drought conditions. Meanwhile, Argentina's corn and soybean crop collections have begun, and the country's wheat sales have reached 7.705 million tons. In other news, Japan's Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries will seek 170,000 metric tons of milling wheat in a tender, while Taiwan's Members Feed Industry Group bought 60,000 metric tons of U.S. corn from Cargill.

Key Takeaways:

  • Brazil's 2004-05 soybean crop is projected to total 57.0 million metric tons, following drought conditions.
  • Argentina's 2004-05 wheat sales have reached 7.705 million tons, a significant increase from last year's 3.97 million tons.
  • Argentina's 2004-05 corn sales have reached 2.943 million tons, up from last year's 1.68 million tons.
  • Japan's Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries will seek 170,000 metric tons of milling wheat in a tender.
  • Taiwan's Members Feed Industry Group bought 60,000 metric tons of U.S. corn from Cargill in a tender.
  • Argentina's farmers have begun collecting the 2004-05 corn and soybean crops.
  • The Paranagua port in Brazil will continue to prohibit the export of genetically modified soybeans this season.

Statistics:

  • 57.0 million metric tons: Brazil's projected 2004-05 soybean crop.
  • 7.705 million tons: Argentina's 2004-05 wheat sales as of March 4.
  • 2.943 million tons: Argentina's 2004-05 corn sales as of March 2.
  • 170,000 metric tons: Amount of milling wheat sought by Japan's Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries in a tender.
  • 60,000 metric tons: Amount of U.S. corn bought by Taiwan's Members Feed Industry Group from Cargill.
  • 7.705 million tons/3.97 million tons: Argentina's 2004-05 wheat sales compared to 2003-04 wheat sales.
  • 2.943 million tons/1.68 million tons: Argentina's 2004-05 corn sales compared to 2003-04 corn sales.

Sources:

  • Dow Jones, "Brazil Govt Lowers Soy Forecast To 57.0 Mln Tons On Drought" (Monday, March 7, 2005).
  • Dow Jones, "Brazil's Celeres Drops 04-05 Soy Crop View To 56.4M Tons" (Monday, March 7, 2005).
  • Dow Jones, "Brazil's Paranagua Port To Maintain GMO Soy Ban - State" (Monday, March 7, 2005).
  • Dow Jones, "Japan Ag Ministry To Seek 170,000 Tons Wheat In Tender-Trade" (Tuesday, March 8, 2005).
  • Dow Jones, "Taiwan's MFIG Buys 60,000 Tons US Corn From Cargill -Trader" (Tuesday, March 8, 2005).
  • Dow Jones, "Argentina Farmers Collecting 04-05 Corn, Soy - Ag Sec" (Monday, March 7, 2005).
  • Dow Jones, "Argentina's 04-05 Wheat Sales Total 7.705M Tons - Govt" (Monday, March 7, 2005).
  • Dow Jones, "Argentina's 04-05 Corn Sales Total 2.943 Mln Tons - Govt" (Friday, March 4, 2005).
  • Dow Jones, "US Wheat Review: Weakens In Subdued Trading" (Monday, March 7, 2005).
  • Dow Jones, "CBOT Corn Review: Drops In Tandem With Wheat, Soy" (Monday, March 7, 2005).
  • Dow Jones, "CBOT Soy Review: Beans Down; Consolidate Within Range" (Monday, March 7, 2005).