Groundwater Resources Decline Due to Climate Change, Economic Growth, and Population Growth

Strategic Insights -

Research by Utrecht University indicates that global population growth, economic growth, and climate change have led to a decline in groundwater resources, crucial for sustaining groundwater-dependent ecosystems (GDEs). A framework for mapping GDEs at a large scale was developed using results from a high-resolution global groundwater model. The study focused on the Australian continent, where groundwater depth observations and a GDE atlas are abundant, and classified GDEs into three categories: aquatic, wetland, and terrestrial. The research showed a high hit rate and critical success index for each GDE type, but also observed a decline in the average number of months that GDEs receive groundwater between 1979-1999 and 1999-2019, indicating an increasing threat to these ecosystems.

Key Takeaways:

  • The study found a decline in groundwater resources due to climate change, economic growth, and population growth, essential for sustaining GDEs.
  • A framework for mapping GDEs at a large scale was developed using results from a high-resolution global groundwater model.
  • The research focused on the Australian continent due to abundant groundwater depth observations and a GDE atlas.
  • GDEs were classified into three categories: aquatic, wetland, and terrestrial.
  • The study used a set of rules to identify different ecosystems based on groundwater levels and discharge.
  • The hit rate and critical success index were above 80% for each of the three GDE types in the steady-state mode.
  • The research observed a decline in the average number of months that GDEs receive groundwater between 1979-1999 and 1999-2019.
  • The proposed framework and methodology provide a first step towards analyzing how global climate change and water use may affect GDE extent and health.

Statistics:

  • 80% hit rate and critical success index for each GDE type in the steady-state mode.
  • Decline in the average number of months that GDEs receive groundwater between 1979-1999 and 1999-2019.
  • 1979-1999 and 1999-2019 time periods used for analysis.
  • 3 categories of GDEs: aquatic, wetland, and terrestrial.
  • 1 high-resolution global groundwater model used for the study.

Sources:

  • Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2025,29():2153-2165
  • Mapping groundwater-dependent ecosystems using a high-resolution global groundwater model. (DOI: 10.5194/hess-29-2153-2025)
  • https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-2153-2025
  • Utrecht University
  • N. G. Otoo, Department of Physical Geography, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands.