Gubernatorial Elections: Democrats See Opportunity to Rebuild Party in Republican-Leaning States

Strategic Insights -

Democrats are capitalizing on the upcoming gubernatorial elections in 36 states this November, hoping to rebuild their party in Republican-leaning states and gain an edge in the 2008 presidential contest. With Republicans facing an uphill battle in many statehouse contests, Democrats see an opportunity to close the 28-22 advantage the GOP holds in governorships. Massachusetts, New York, and California are three key states with strong Democratic traditions but Republican governors, with potential Democratic pick-ups this fall.

Key Takeaways:

  • Democrats are focusing on "purple" states, where Democratic blue and Republican red battled for supremacy in the 2004 presidential race, to expand the electoral map for the party.
  • Ohio, Michigan, Colorado, and Florida are among the top Democratic targets, with opportunities to pick up governorships and potentially sway the 2008 presidential contest.
  • In Ohio, Democratic Congressman Ted Strickland leads both Republican opponents, Bob Taft and J. Kenneth Blackwell, by margins ranging from 4 to 16 percentage points.
  • In Michigan, the re-election of Democratic incumbent Jennifer Granholm will depend on the voters' perception of the state economy, which has been hit hard by automotive industry layoffs.
  • Republicans also see opportunities in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Iowa, where Democratic incumbents face challenges due to economic realities facing voters.
  • The Republican Governors Association identifies Democratic incumbents with challenges in the Midwest, citing economic realities facing voters as a key factor.

Statistics:

  • 22 of the 36 governorships up for election in November are held by Republicans.
  • 7 of these Republican governors are retiring, prohibited by state law from serving another term, or not seeking re-election.
  • Democrats hold 28 governorships, with an opportunity to close the 28-22 advantage held by Republicans.
  • 50% Republican incumbent Bob Taft is retiring, with a corresponding Democratic pickup possible.
  • 6.7% is the jobless rate in Michigan, with Democratic incumbent Jennifer Granholm's re-election dependent on voters' perceptions of the state economy.
  • 4.9% is the national jobless rate, compared to Michigan's 6.7%.

Sources:

  • Jennifer Duffy, Cook Political Report
  • Phil Musser, Republican Governors Association
  • Jenny Backus, Democratic strategist
  • SCOTT SHEPARD, TOM BAXTER, Political Insiders
  • Dale E. Dodson, Staff Photographer