Hawaii's COVID-19 Success Puts Governor David Ige in a Dilemma

Strategic Insights -

The state's unique success in curbing local spread has led to a dilemma for Governor David Ige, as he must decide how to reopen the state to tourism while minimizing the risk of new infections.

As Hawaii's COVID-19 rates remain among the lowest in the nation, the public and many leaders seem determined to stomp out every last case of the virus. State Health Director Bruce Anderson has repeatedly warned that eradication of COVID-19 in Hawaii is unlikely, but the target remains zero infections for much of the public. The state's two-week quarantine for travelers has effectively squashed "the curve," and residents are now wearing masks and practicing social distancing as a way of life.

Key Takeaways:

  • Hawaii's unique geography and public cooperation have contributed to its low COVID-19 rates, with just a handful of new cases reported each day in recent weeks.
  • The state's goal is to have 300-500 trained contact tracers to identify people who have had close contact with those infected with COVID-19.
  • State Rep. Bob McDermott has proposed a testing program that requires travelers to be tested 72 hours before flying to Honolulu, with those who refuse to participate being prevented from leaving the airport until they take a test.
  • The current testing available is not foolproof, as people who are infected may not test positive due to the incubation phase or an inaccurate test result.
  • The state is planning to spend tens of millions of dollars on scanners to take the temperatures of people arriving at Hawaii's airports, but Governor Ige acknowledged that there is no perfect system.
  • State Health Director Bruce Anderson has warned that eradication of COVID-19 in Hawaii is unlikely, but the target remains zero infections for much of the public.
  • Hawaii leaders, including Representative McDermott, are pushing for a more aggressive approach to defeating the virus, including expanded testing and contact tracing programs.
  • The health insurer HMSA estimates that the visitor population will increase the state's effective population by about 250,000 people once the state begins to reopen to travel.

Statistics:

  • 300-500: The number of trained contact tracers the state aims to have to identify people who have had close contact with those infected with COVID-19.
  • 250,000: The estimated increase in the state's effective population due to the visitor population.
  • 100: The number of symptom-free virus carriers that Representative McDermott estimated could infect 300 others in a single day.
  • 72 hours: The time frame proposed by Representative McDermott for testing before allowing travelers to enter Hawaii.
  • 10,000: The daily arrivals number that Representative McDermott used to illustrate the potential for a spike in new infections.

Sources:

  • The Honolulu Star-Advertiser, "Ige's dilemma: How to reopen Hawaii to tourism without unleashing COVID-19"
  • Hawaii Department of Health, "COVID-19 Response Plan"
  • HMSA, "COVID-19 Public Health Recovery Task Force Presentation"