Heseltine Seen as Only Tory Leader Able to Boost Party's Electoral Prospects

Strategic Insights -

Michael Heseltine, the British Trade and Industry Secretary, is the only potential Conservative Party leader who can improve his party's electoral prospects, according to a recent poll. The MORI/On-Line poll of 1,002 adults shows that if any Tory leader other than Heseltine took over the leadership, fewer people would vote Conservative than if Prime Minister John Major remained in office.

The poll findings stand in stark contrast to comments made by John Redwood, the only challenger to Major's leadership, who promised a "new dash of passion and excitement" and claimed that his leadership would "represent a change of style as well as of substance." However, the poll results indicate that only 28 percent of respondents would vote Tory if Redwood became party chief, whereas 34 percent and 31 percent would back the Conservatives if Heseltine or Major became leaders, respectively.

Key Takeaways:

  • The MORI/On-Line poll of 1,002 adults found that Michael Heseltine is the only potential Conservative Party leader who can improve his party's electoral prospects.
  • John Redwood's leadership would damage his party's electoral prospects more than if Employment Secretary Michael Portillo, Chancellor Kenneth Clarke, or Education Secretary Gillian Shephard took over the leadership.
  • Only 28 percent of poll respondents said they would vote Tory if Redwood became party chief, whereas 34 percent and 31 percent would back the Conservatives if Heseltine or Major became leaders, respectively.
  • A majority of voters prefer John Major winning over John Redwood, with 50 percent to 31 percent backing Major over Redwood as prime minister.
  • Michael Heseltine and Michael Portillo have not ruled out running in a second-round ballot if Major does not win 50 percent of Tory votes and a clear 15 percent lead over Redwood in the first round.

Statistics:

  • 1,002 adults participated in the MORI/On-Line poll.
  • 28 percent of poll respondents said they would vote Tory if John Redwood became party chief.
  • 34 percent of poll respondents said they would vote Tory if Michael Heseltine became party chief.
  • 31 percent of poll respondents said they would vote Tory if John Major became party chief.
  • 50 percent of poll respondents backed John Major over John Redwood as prime minister.
  • 31 percent of poll respondents backed John Redwood over John Major as prime minister.
  • A majority of two to one opposed joining a single European currency, with half of those opposing not wanting the option ruled out forever.
  • A majority of three to one favor a national referendum on a single currency.

Sources:

  • The Economist, June 30: "Heseltine Seen as Only Tory Leader Able to Boost Party's Electoral Prospects"
  • MORI/On-Line poll, June 30: "MORI/On-Line Poll on Conservative Leadership Contest"