House Control Hangs in the Balance as Election Day Approaches

Strategic Insights -

As the 2000 elections draw near, analysts are predicting a fierce battle for control of the House of Representatives. The outcome will not only determine which party will hold the majority but also shape the fate of several key players who will be impacted by the result.

Key Takeaways:

  • President Clinton's chances of redeeming himself after the 1994 Republican takeover of the House depend on Democratic gains, but a GOP win in his home district of Arkansas could make a tough pill to swallow.
  • Sen. John McCain's efforts to help Republicans keep the House will be seen as a crucial factor in the outcome, regardless of the party's performance in the elections.
  • House Majority Whip Tom DeLay's leadership will be a prime target for ouster if Republicans lose the House, and he may be blamed for keeping the party from its districts.
  • House Speaker Dennis Hastert's down-to-earth, affable style has kept him popular among House Republicans, but a loss would see the blame fall on DeLay rather than him, potentially positioning him for minority leader.
  • House Minority Leader Dick Gephardt's focus on taking back the House may put him at risk of being minority leader again if Democrats come short, though there is no clear alternative.
  • George W. Bush's performance on the campaign trail has improved the fortunes of the House GOP, but McCain's efforts will share the credit if Republicans win, while undermining Bush's claim to the credit if they lose.
  • Al Gore will likely bear the brunt of the blame if Democrats fail to take the House, regardless of the outcome of the presidential election.
  • National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Thomas Davis's knowledge of individual districts makes him a prime candidate to navigate the party through redistricting if Republicans win, but a loss may jeopardize his leadership position.
  • Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Patrick Kennedy will be visible as a solid fundraiser regardless of the outcome, receiving credit or blame dependent on the election results.

Statistics:

  • Five seats separated the speakers of the House from loss of control in 1998.
  • 2000 is expected to see small shifts in control of the House, but the battle will still be riddled with casualties.
  • The House majority is expected to change, but by how much, if at all, remains to be seen.

Sources:

  • CongressDaily, November 2nd 1998