ICE Secretary Kristi Noem's Claim of 1.6 Million Migrants Leaving the US Under Review

Strategic Insights -

U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem has recently claimed that 1.6 million migrants have voluntarily left the country since President Donald Trump took office. This assertion is largely based on data from the Center for Immigration Studies, a non-profit research organization that analyzed government data from the Current Population Survey. However, the non-profit has cautioned that the data may be overstated due to potential changes in immigrant behavior in response to the government's stepped-up enforcement efforts.

Key Takeaways:

  • The Center for Immigration Studies analyzed data from the Current Population Survey and found that the estimated number of illegal immigrant population in the U.S. decreased from 15.8 million in January to 14.2 million in July.
  • The non-profit noted that immigrants may be more reluctant to respond to the government survey due to the recent enforcement efforts, which could lead to an overestimation of the decline in their actual numbers.
  • The U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) has seen a decrease in the pace of daily immigration arrests, falling nearly 20 percent in July.
  • Between July 1 and 27, ICE averaged 990 daily arrests, down from 1,224 the previous month, according to government data analyzed by the Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse.
  • The Homeland Security secretary, known as "ICE Barbie," has been pushing for voluntary self-deportation and has offered incentives, including paying for travel expenses and providing an extra $1,000, to encourage immigrants to leave the country without being arrested.

Statistics:

  • 1.6 million estimated number of migrants who have left the country since President Trump took office (as claimed by Secretary Noem)
  • 15.8 million estimated number of illegal immigrant population in the U.S. in January (based on Current Population Survey data by the Center for Immigration Studies)
  • 14.2 million estimated number of illegal immigrant population in the U.S. in July (based on Current Population Survey data by the Center for Immigration Studies)
  • 20 percent decrease in the pace of daily immigration arrests in July
  • 990 average daily arrests between July 1 and 27 (based on government data analyzed by the Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse)
  • 1,224 average daily arrests in the previous month (based on government data analyzed by the Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse)

Sources:

  • Center for Immigration Studies, "Estimated Number of Illegals in U.S. Decreased by About 900,000 Between January and July 2024, Yet Still Remain Over 14 Million"
  • Department of Homeland Security, Thursday press release
  • Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse, "Immigration Arrests Down Nearly 20 Percent in July"
  • The Independent, "Kristi Noem claims 1.6 million migrants have left US since Trump took office"