Illinois Presidential Race: Bush Leads in Downstate Areas, While Gore Campaign Focuses on Suburban Vote

Strategic Insights -

Vice-president Al Gore trails Texas Gov. George W. Bush in pivotal Downstate and suburban areas that helped President Clinton carry Illinois in the last presidential election. According to unpublished polls in three swing congressional districts, Bush leads Gore by 8-10 percentage points in these districts, which all went for Clinton in 1996. The trend lines show Bush running better than Clinton did in swing areas at this point in time, says pollster Michael McKeon.

Key Takeaways:

  • Bush leads Gore by 8-10 percentage points in three swing congressional districts, including the North Shore's 10th Congressional District and the Springfield area.
  • These districts alone accounted for almost 1/10 of President Clinton's winning margin in 1996, making the Downstate situation ominous for the Gore campaign.
  • A poll for Rep. John Shimkus (R-Collinsville) shows Bush leading Gore 47% to 37% in the Springfield area.
  • In the Springfield area, a poll for Rep. John Shimkus (R-Collinsville) shows about the same margin for Bush, 47% to 37%.
  • The Gore campaign major asset - the longest economic boom in U.S. history - is less potent Downstate, where unemployment in some counties runs twice the national average.
  • Illinois Rep. Tim Johnson of Urbana, a Republican candidate for the seat of retiring Rep. Tom Ewing, plans to release a poll this week showing a significant lead for Bush in a GOP-leaning district that President Clinton narrowly won in 1996.
  • The implication for the Gore campaign is that they will be forced to spend more time and resources statewide, rather than focusing on the city.

Statistics:

  • Bush leads Gore by 8-10 percentage points in the North Shore's 10th Congressional District.
  • The three districts alone accounted for almost 1/10 of President Clinton's winning margin in 1996.
  • Unemployment in some Downstate counties runs twice the national average.
  • Gore campaign's major asset - the longest economic boom in U.S. history - is less potent Downstate.
  • 44.5% of voters in the district of Rep. Lane Evans (D-Rock Island) support Bush, while 34.3% support Gore.

Sources:

  • Vice-President Al Gore is trailing Texas Gov. George W. Bush in pivotal Downstate and suburban areas that helped President Clinton carry Illinois in the last presidential election. (Not specified in original text)
  • Unpublished polls conducted in three swing congressional districts paint a far different picture of the Illinois presidential race from the dead heat portrayed in well-publicized statewide polls. (Not specified in original text)
  • "All the trend lines show Bush running better than Clinton did in swing areas at this point in time," says Michael McKeon, a Joliet-based pollster who surveys the state regularly for both Democrats and Republicans. (From original text)
  • In the North Shore's 10th Congressional District, where there's a hot race to replace retiring Rep. John Porter, R-Wilmette, Gov. Bush is "up about eight or nine points," according to a poll Mr. McKeon says he conducted recently for a client he wouldn't name. (From original text)
  • A poll conducted earlier this month for Mark Baker, the GOP challenger to Rep. Lane Evans (D-Rock Island), shows Mr. Bush ahead 44.5% to 34.3%, according to campaign manager Steven Shearer. (From original text)
  • A poll for Rep. John Shimkus (R-Collinsville) shows about the same margin for Mr. Bush, 47% to 37%. (From original text)
  • Illinois Rep. Tim Johnson of Urbana, a Republican candidate for the seat of retiring Rep. Tom Ewing, plans to release a poll this week showing a significant lead for Mr. Bush in a GOP-leaning district that President Clinton narrowly won in 1996. (From original text)