Immigration Furor Threatens Republican Party's Future

Strategic Insights -

The furor over immigration raging in Congress and the Republican Party reflects a high-stakes duel over the party's image and direction. Two powerful factions - the business lobby, which wants a new law to enable 11 million illegal immigrants to stay and work, and grassroots conservatives who want a crackdown on lawbreakers and deportation - are at odds. This internal conflict threatens to imperil the party's prospects in the November congressional elections and reignite tensions during the 2008 presidential primaries.

Key Takeaways:

  • The Republican Party is torn between the business lobby, which wants to expand the party's reach to Latinos, and grassroots conservatives who want a crackdown on lawbreakers and deportation.
  • President Bush's weakened status has damaged his position on immigration, and his approach is seen as being in the Reagan tradition, emphasizing an optimistic message of inclusivity and pro-Latino policies.
  • A new law that would enable 11 million illegal immigrants to stay and work risks prompting millions of grassroots conservatives to boycott Election Day, potentially alienating independent voters.
  • The conservative base is divided on the issue, with some arguing that illegal immigrants should be treated as lawbreakers and others advocating for a more inclusive approach.
  • The Republican Party must balance the needs of its business and grassroots constituents, as well as the needs of its base in the 2008 presidential primaries.
  • The outcome of the immigration debate will have significant implications for the party's electoral prospects and its ability to appeal to diverse voter groups.

Statistics:

  • 11 million: the estimated number of illegal immigrants in the United States.
  • 44%: the percentage of the Latino vote that President Bush garnered in 2004.
  • 8%: the percentage of the Latino vote that the GOP candidate Bob Dole drew in 1988.
  • 53% to 40%: the margin by which Americans Want illegal immigrants to go home, according to a new Pew Research Center survey.
  • 75%: the percentage of Americans who think illegal immigrants should be denied access to government services, according to a new Time poll.

Sources:

  • "The Philadelphia Inquirer"
  • "Dick Polman"
  • "Pew Research Center for the People and the Press"
  • "Time"
  • "Knight Ridder/Tribune Business News"