India Must Remain Vigilant Amid De-escalation Efforts with China

Strategic Insights -

As India and China initiate talks to de-escalate tensions along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), a significant trust deficit between rival armies remains, necessitating caution on the ground. China's infrastructure developments, including roads, bridges, tunnels, and habitats, along the entire LAC, have enabled PLA troops to quickly return to forward locations. This stark contrast to India's mobilization time has set a daunting challenge for de-escalation talks. Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi's visit has only laid the groundwork for discussions on de-escalation principles and modalities, but the situation remains delicate.

Key Takeaways:

  • China has built extensive infrastructure along the LAC, enabling PLA troops to quickly move to and from forward locations, with a 2-3 hour mobilization time, compared to India's slower mobilization.
  • The trust deficit between rival armies remains high due to multiple PLA incursions into eastern Ladakh in April-May 2020.
  • India and China have decided to set up general-level mechanisms in the eastern and middle sectors of the LAC to maintain peace and monitor troop movements.
  • Indian forces have to be extremely alert on the ground due to the PLA's highway, infrastructure build-up, and military preparedness.
  • The situation has stabilized after troop disengagement at the two remaining face-off sites at Depsang and Demchok, but the troops remain forward-deployed.
  • PLA's combined arms brigades have pulled back around 100 km from the LAC, but many still remain forward deployed, with around 4,500-5,000 soldiers each equipped with tanks, armoured vehicles, artillery, and surface-to-air missile systems.
  • De-escalation and deinduction of troops along the LAC will require the return of all additional troops to their permanent peacetime locations.

Statistics:

  • Length of the Line of Actual Control (LAC): 3,488 km
  • Number of soldiers in a PLA's combined arms brigade: 4,500-5,000
  • Time for PLA troops to mobilize and return to forward locations: 2-3 hours
  • Current number of PLA troops forward-deployed along the LAC: unknown, but significant number remains
  • Distance PLA troops have pulled back from the LAC: 100 km

Sources:

  • Rajat Pandit, citing "a senior Army officer" in TOI.