India-US Relations: A Complex Dance of Cooperation and Conflict

Strategic Insights -

Despite the imposition of tariffs by both countries, the friendship between President-elect Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has endured for the past eight years, and it is expected to continue in Trump's two-term presidency. The two leaders have maintained a cordial relationship, with Modi even declaring "Abki baar, Trump Sarkar" or "This time, a Trump government" at a rally in Houston, Texas, which was attended by Trump. The president-elect enjoys immense popularity among Indians in India, with Hindu priests in several parts of the country leading prayer services for his victory. Residents of Vadluru, Andhra Pradesh, also celebrated the victory of Usha Chilukuri Vance, Vice President JD Vance's wife, who hails from that village.

Key Takeaways:

  • Dr. Sumit Ganguly, Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institute at Stanford University, attributes Trump's popularity in India to frustration with the left wing of the Democratic Party, which has criticized human rights violations and abuses in India.
  • Ganguly notes that Indians are delighted that Trump will maintain a "deafening silence" on human rights issues in India, as he does not believe in them at home.
  • The two major areas of concern in the US-India relationship are continuing tariffs and India's friendly relationship with Iran.
  • Trump is likely to ask India to continue its ban on Iranian oil and instead ramp up its purchase of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the US.
  • Ganguly believes that Modi's comfortable relationship with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will prove useful to the US, as Modi only pays lip service to the Palestinian cause.
  • Despite potential irritants, both bilateral and beyond, Ganguly suspects that the relationship will continue to proceed apace, possibly even gaining momentum under Trump.
  • Indian Member of Parliament Dr. Shashi Tharoor takes a slightly different stance, forecasting that the two countries' relationship will unlikely change regardless of who serves in the White House.
  • Tharoor notes that many drivers are pushing forward a cordial relationship between the two countries, including the 4 million-strong Indian American diaspora.

Statistics:

  • US goods and services trade with India totaled an estimated $191.8 billion in 2022.
  • Exports to India were $73.0 billion; imports from India were $118.8 billion, according to data from the Office of the US Trade Representative.
  • India has agreed to remove retaliatory tariffs on chickpeas, lentils, almonds, walnuts, apples, boric acid, and diagnostic reagents as part of the June 22, 2023 meeting at the White House.

Sources:

  • "More Than Words: U.S.-India Strategic Cooperation Into the Twenty-First Century" by Dr. Sumit Ganguly
  • Indian Currents
  • EMS (Ethnic Media Services)
  • Office of the US Trade Representative
  • Institute for Nonprofit News (INN)