India's Covid-19 Crisis Undermines Its Ambitions and China's Rivals

Strategic Insights -

As India grapples with a catastrophic Covid-19 wave, its ambitions to become the "pharmacy of the world" are in tatters. The country's failure to secure enough vaccine shots has led to a de facto export ban, leaving its neighbors, including Nepal, Bangladesh, Bhutan, and Sri Lanka, without supplies. This has created an opportunity for China to fill the void and gain influence in the region. The crisis has exposed India's structural deficiencies and highlighted the limits of its rising power.

Key Takeaways:

  • India's catastrophic Covid-19 wave has severely impacted its ability to export vaccines, leaving its neighbors without supplies.
  • The Modi government's failure to secure enough shots has resulted in a de facto export ban, undermining India's reputation as a reliable vaccine supplier.
  • China is taking advantage of India's crisis to expand its influence in the region, particularly in countries where India is vying for influence.
  • The Quad vaccine initiative, spearheaded by Washington, has been severely affected, with the goal of providing 1bn doses to Asia by the end of 2022 now in jeopardy.
  • The crisis has exposed India's structural deficiencies, including its limited capacities and traditional orientation towards non-alignment, making it a challenging partner for the Quad.
  • India's commitment to the Quad remains strong, with 21 Indian soldiers dying in a clash with Chinese troops along their shared border cementing New Delhi's resolve.
  • Washington still views the Quad as "deeply consequential for the 21st century" and expects India to recover from its current crisis.

Statistics:

  • Over 21 Indian soldiers died in a clash with Chinese troops along their shared border.
  • India's Covid-19 cases have surged, with over 30 million reported cases and 400,000 deaths (as of the last available data).
  • The Serum Institute of India, India's largest vaccine manufacturer, has ceased commercial vaccine exports due to the crisis.
  • The Quad vaccine initiative aimed to provide 1bn doses to Asia by the end of 2022, but this goal is now in jeopardy.
  • The crisis has resulted in a de facto export ban on commercial vaccine exports from India.

Sources:

  • Amy Kazmin and Demetri Sevastopulo, "India's Covid-19 crisis has left its ambitions to become the 'pharmacy of the world' in tatters". — Financial Times, (no date mentioned, citing 2021 article)
  • Ashley Tellis, "The hype outran the reality" — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
  • Kurt Campbell, White House's top Asia official, stating Washington is still on track for 2022. — Financial Times, (no date mentioned, citing 2021 article)
  • Lisa Curtis, Center for a New American Security, stating India's Covid woes will weigh on the alliance's ability to tackle other issues. — Financial Times, (no date mentioned, citing 2021 article)
  • Evan Medeiros, Georgetown University, stating India is the biggest challenge for the Quad due to its limited capabilities. — Financial Times, (no date mentioned, citing 2021 article)