India's Diplomatic Ambiguity in Myanmar: A Calibrated Middle Path

Strategic Insights -

In the face of growing international pressure to condemn the 2021 military coup in Myanmar, India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi has expressed hope for "fair and inclusive" elections, scheduled to begin on December 28. However, a closer analysis reveals a carefully crafted language that maintains a veneer of democratic support while appeasing the junta, known for egregious human rights violations. India's diplomatic posture, aiming to balance its strategic priorities with human rights concerns, underscores the complexity of international relations.

Key Takeaways:

  • India's expression of hope for fair elections in Myanmar is a calculated move to maintain a relationship with the junta while projecting a pro-democracy image.
  • The Modi government's language is a careful distinction between demanding and hoping, signaling a non-negotiable condition tied to India's core values, but not taking concrete action.
  • India's foreign policy towards Myanmar is guided by realpolitik, prioritizing national interest over ideological or human rights concerns, particularly in countering China's influence in the region.
  • India shares a long, porous border with Myanmar, and the country's internal conflict has direct security implications for India's northeastern states.
  • The Modi government believes that engaging with the junta is necessary to ensure stability and cooperation on border management and counter-insurgency operations.
  • Key infrastructure projects, such as the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project, depend on cooperation with the junta in Naypyidaw, despite its lack of democratic credentials.
  • India's stance on Myanmar's elections is in contrast to other international players, who have consistently condemned the coup and human rights abuses, accompanied by targeted sanctions and a clear refusal to recognize the military's legitimacy.
  • The current chair of ASEAN, Malaysia, has prioritized peace over democratic elections, reflecting a form of strategic calculation, balancing regional stability with internal political reform.

Statistics:

  • Over four million people have been displaced in Myanmar as a result of the civil war.
  • The junta has systematically dismantled democratic institutions, jailed political opponents, and killed activists since the 2021 military coup.
  • The planned polls in Myanmar will be held only in areas under junta control, with pro-democracy parties excluded or officially 'dissolved'.
  • India supplies military equipment to the junta, contributing to the violence against civilians.

Sources:

  • "India's dealings with Myanmar's junta show the gameplan is clear: diplomacy is a convenient bystander to the destruction of democracy"

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  • "International Criminal Court to probe Myanmar junta chief's human rights abuses"

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  • "UN expert body calls for Myanmar junta's top leaders to be tried for genocide"

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  • "ASEAN summit focuses on Myanmar's crisis, with Malaysia's PM saying 'peace is the immediate priority'"

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