Influenza Activity Returns to Pre-Pandemic Levels Despite Ongoing Challenges

Strategic Insights -

Research on influenza conducted by scientists at the University of Ha'il in Saudi Arabia has yielded findings that indicate the activity of the virus has returned to pre-pandemic levels, despite the initial changes in respiratory illness epidemiology due to SARS-CoV-2. The study utilized a Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) framework, extended with fuzzy Atangana-Baleanu-Caputo (ABC) fractional derivatives to incorporate uncertainty and memory effects. The research aimed to explore the utility of fuzzy fractional calculus in providing a more flexible and realistic approach to modeling epidemic dynamics under uncertainty.

Key Takeaways:

  • The study found that influenza activity has returned to pre-pandemic levels, highlighting the ongoing challenges posed by the virus.
  • The researchers used a Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) framework, extended with fuzzy Atangana-Baleanu-Caputo (ABC) fractional derivatives to incorporate uncertainty and memory effects.
  • The study established the theoretical foundation for the fuzzy ABC derivatives and integrals based on the generalized Hukuhara difference.
  • The existence and uniqueness of the solutions for the fuzzy fractional SEIR model were rigorously proven using fixed-point theorems.
  • The study analyzed the system's disease-free and endemic equilibrium points under the fractional framework.
  • A numerical scheme based on the fractional Adams-Bashforth method was used to approximate the fuzzy solutions, providing interval-valued results for different uncertainty levels.
  • The study demonstrated the utility of fuzzy fractional calculus in providing a more flexible and potentially realistic approach to modeling epidemic dynamics under uncertainty.
  • The research was supported by the Deanship of Scientific Research at Imam Mohammad Ibn Saud Islamic University.
  • The study included findings from University of Ha'il: "This paper investigates an influenza epidemic model using a SEIR framework, extended with fuzzy ABC fractional derivatives to incorporate uncertainty (via fuzzy numbers for state variables) and memory effects (via the ABC fractional derivative for non-local dynamics)."

Statistics:

  • The study found that influenza activity has returned to pre-pandemic levels.
  • The SEIR framework used in the study accounted for uncertainty and memory effects.
  • The fuzzy ABC fractional derivatives used in the study provided a more flexible and potentially realistic approach to modeling epidemic dynamics under uncertainty.
  • The numerical scheme based on the fractional Adams-Bashforth method was used to approximate the fuzzy solutions with interval-valued results for different uncertainty levels.

Sources:

  • Fractal and Fractional, 2025,9(7):402.
  • Exploring SEIR Influenza Epidemic Model via Fuzzy ABC Fractional Derivatives with Crowley-Martin Incidence Rate.
  • University of Ha'il, Ha'il, Saudi Arabia.
  • Deanship of Scientific Research At Imam Mohammad Ibn Saud Islamic University.
  • Medical Letter on the CDC & FDA, August 17, 2025; p 687.