International Pressure Builds Towards Possible Changes in Iraq Sanctions

Strategic Insights -

In recent developments, Iraq's battle against the UN sanctions suggests that international pressure is building towards possible changes in the embargo structure. The US and Britain, however, seem unwilling to ease the sanctions, citing the need for Saddam Hussein's removal from power. Meanwhile, Iraq has been successful in finding ways to challenge the sanctions regime, and more countries are speaking out in favor of lifting the sanctions. The situation remains tense, with the possibility of further air strikes against Iraqi targets and the continuation of the UN arms inspectors' efforts to return to Iraq.

Key Takeaways:

  • The Libya-Iran Sanctions Act, set to expire in 2001, may not be renewed due to opposition from a majority of US politicians, which could set a precedent for a review of the sanctions against Iraq.
  • Iraq has been successful in adopting the "Libyan strategy" of gaining support from countries, including those with little geo-political weight, to challenge the sanctions regime.
  • The US and Britain have stated that they will keep the sanctions in place until Saddam is removed from power, but Iraq has refused to allow UN arms inspectors to return, citing a lack of incentive.
  • Both Al Gore and George Bush Jr. have stated that they plan to take a tough stance on Saddam Hussein during the US presidential elections, increasing the likelihood that sanctions will remain in place for another year or two.
  • The French Foreign Minister, Hubert Vedrine, has condemned the sanctions as "cruel and dangerous", and Iraqi Vice President Taha Yassin Ramadan has accused the UN of stealing Iraqi resources.

Statistics:

  • 44 inspectors from 19 different countries have been trained by the UN Monitoring Verification and Inspection Commission (UNMOVIC) in a month-long course in the US in July and August.
  • Half of those trained have been taken on by UNMOVIC at its headquarters in New York.
  • Half are being kept on standby, waiting for the day when they can start their work inside Iraq.
  • The chances of this happening in the foreseeable future are slim, as there is no motivation or incentive for Saddam to allow the inspectors in.

Sources:

  • "Recent developments in Iraq's battle against the UN sanctions indicate that international pressure is building up towards possible changes in the embargo structure." - No source provided
  • "According to APS sources, these changes are not likely to be formally declared but rather "allowed to happen" in order to avoid a confrontation at the UN." - [Source: APS]
  • "In a report to the Security Council, the UN Monitoring Verification and Inspection Commission (UNMOVIC) informed the Council that 44 inspectors from 19 different countries were trained in a month-long course that took place in the US in July and August." - [Source: UNMOVIC]
  • "The French Foreign Minister, Hubert Vedrine, recently called the sanctions "cruel and dangerous"." - [Source: French Foreign Minister]
  • "Iraqi Vice President Taha Yassin Ramadan has blasted the UN, accusing it of stealing Iraqi resources." - [Source: Iraqi Vice President]