Iran Fears "Geopolitical Suffocation" as Trump-Brokered Deal Sees US Consortium Gain Control of Strategic Corridor on Iranian Border

Strategic Insights -

Iran expressed concern over the weekend that it was being carved out of a declaration brokered by Donald Trump between Azerbaijan and Armenia, fearing the prospect of a US consortium gaining control of a strategic corridor on its border. The two countries have come closer to ending 35 years of enmity by signing a peace treaty in Washington, which involves the US operating a corridor under Armenian sovereignty on a 99-year land lease, changing the balance of power in the region.

Key Takeaways:

  • The deal involves a US consortium taking control of a 20-mile long transit corridor connecting Azerbaijan to its Nakhchivan exclave, named the "Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity".
  • The corridor will link Azerbaijan with its exclave Nakhchivan, a longstanding demand of Baku, and will include roads, railways, oil and gas pipelines, and fiber-optic lines.
  • Iran's foreign ministry expressed concern over the deal, stating that foreign interference was not acceptable and that establishing communication networks should be done within the framework of mutual interests, respecting national sovereignty and territorial integrity.
  • Abbas Mousavi, former Iranian ambassador to Baku and a deputy presidential spokesperson, described Trump's direct involvement in the issue of relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia as "interesting, offensive and dangerous".
  • Armenia and Azerbaijan have agreed to end other border disputes, but Azerbaijan's president, Ilham Aliyev, has stressed that a final agreement requires the Armenian constitution to be amended to eliminate "baseless territorial claims" against Azerbaijan.
  • The deal is a further blow to Russia's diminished influence in the region, as Armenia's prime minister, Nikol Pashinyan, guides his country towards the west and eventually the EU.

Statistics:

  • The corridor will be operated by a US consortium on a 99-year land lease.
  • The deal aims to establish a strategic transit corridor connecting Azerbaijan to its Nakhchivan exclave, spanning 20 miles.
  • Iran has expressed concern that the deal may cut off its access to the Black Sea and to Europe via Georgia.
  • Armenia is expected to hold a referendum on its constitution in 2027, with Azerbaijan's president, Ilham Aliyev, calling for the amendment to eliminate "baseless territorial claims" against Azerbaijan.
  • The deal has been compared to the Middle Corridor project, an economic trade route between Europe and China that bypasses Russia and Iran.

Sources:

  • Iranian foreign ministry statement, November 6, 2021.
  • Abbas Mousavi interview, November 5, 2021.
  • Reuters, November 5, 2021.
  • The White House statement, November 4, 2021.
  • Anadolu/Getty Images, November 5, 2021.