Iran's Nuclear Deal: European Countries Threaten Snapback of Sanctions

Strategic Insights -

European countries, Britain, France, and Germany, have warned Iran that they will trigger the snapback mechanism to reimpose United Nations sanctions on Tehran's nuclear program unless it agrees to resume negotiations with the US, allows UN inspectors access to its nuclear sites, and accounts for the 400 kilograms of highly enriched uranium it has amassed. Iran has rejected these conditions, and the US and Iran's talks on a new nuclear deal have stalled since the 12-day Israeli bombardment of Iran's nuclear and military sites in June. The snapback mechanism will expire on October 18, and the Europeans want to trigger it before Russia takes over the UN Security Council presidency in October.

Key Takeaways:

  • Iran has amassed over 400 kilograms of highly enriched uranium, exceeding the limits set out in the 2015 nuclear deal, which allowed for a maximum of 300 kilograms of uranium with a maximum enrichment level of 3.67%.
  • The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has estimated that Iran's overall stockpile of enriched uranium stood at 9,247.6 kilograms as of May 17.
  • Iran has removed most monitoring equipment, including IAEA cameras, and barred some of the agency's most experienced inspectors.
  • The snapback mechanism will automatically reimpose all UN sanctions on Iran unless a new resolution is adopted within 30 days, which is unlikely given the US, Britain, and France would veto such a resolution.
  • The European countries assert that Iran has "willfully and publicly departed" from the nuclear deal's commitments, citing Iran's rejection of the proposed conditions for talks with the US.
  • Iran argues that it has the right to abandon the nuclear deal's limits because Washington withdrew from the deal in 2018 and reimposed its own sanctions.

Statistics:

  • 408.6 kilograms of uranium enriched up to 60% purity, as of May 2023
  • 9,247.6 kilograms of overall stockpile of enriched uranium, as of May 17, 2023
  • 300 kilograms of maximum uranium stockpile allowed under the 2015 nuclear deal
  • 60% enrichment level of uranium, the highest level allowed under the 2015 nuclear deal
  • 3.67% maximum enrichment level of uranium allowed under the 2015 nuclear deal
  • 2018: The year US President Donald Trump withdrew the US from the 2015 nuclear deal
  • October 18: The date the snapback mechanism expires

Sources:

  • Reuters
  • International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
  • Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)
  • European countries (Britain, France, and Germany)
  • Iranian government
  • International Crisis Group