Iraq Crisis Deepens: US Administration Faces Few Options

Strategic Insights -

As the US administration struggles to find a way out of Iraq's deepening crisis, analysts point to a lack of clear direction and a prevailing sense of desperation within the White House. Insiders describe a dysfunctional administration plagued by repeated personnel changes and policy reversals, while external pressures mount as the June 30 deadline for the handover of sovereignty approaches.

Key Takeaways:

  • The US administration is flying blind, lacking consistency in vision and implementation, according to a former official serving in Baghdad.
  • The absence of a clear strategy has led to a devolution of powers, with local commanders making decisions that have profound implications for the country.
  • Analysts believe the US has run out of options, with expectations of what UN special envoy Lakhdar Brahimi can achieve being lowered.
  • The failure to disband militias and private tribal armies has allowed them to splinter the country in the absence of a strong central government.
  • Some neo-conservatives are now advocating for the resignation of Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, while others blame the State Department and US civilian administrator Paul Bremer.
  • Opinion polls show a small US majority losing faith in the war, but President Bush maintains an air of steadfast confidence, despite the deaths of over 700 American soldiers.
  • Former US ambassador Peter Galbraith believes Iraq is not salvageable as a unitary state and advocates for a controlled fragmentation into a system resembling the former Yugoslav model.

Statistics:

  • Over 700 American soldiers have died in Iraq since the start of the conflict.
  • The June 30 deadline for the handover of sovereignty is approaching, with analysts fearing violence will derail UN-supervised elections set for January 2005.
  • Iraq's population is approximately 26 million people, with the Shia majority constituting around 60-65% of the population.
  • The Sunni Arab community is estimated to comprise around 20-25% of the population, while Kurds make up around 15-20%.

Sources:

  • GUY DINMORE, The Times
  • Robert Kagan, Washington Post
  • Marina Ottaway, Carnegie Endowment
  • Anthony Cordesman, Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Entifadh Qanbar, Iraqi National Congress spokesman
  • Michael Rubin, American Enterprise Institute