Iraqi Elections Court Disqualifies Winning Candidate, Casts Uncertainty Over Government Formation

Strategic Insights -

Seven weeks after the Iraqi election, a special court disqualified a winning parliamentary candidate, leading to a possible reversal of the narrow defeat of Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki's alliance. The candidate, Ibrahim al-Mutlaq, was accused of being a loyalist of Saddam Hussein's Baath Party, despite claiming he was involved in agriculture during Mr. Hussein's rule and never joining the Baath Party. The ruling has left the future of the government uncertain, with Iraqi officials predicting that a new government might not be in place by the planned US troop withdrawal deadline in September.

Key Takeaways:

  • The court's decision disqualifies 91 other losing candidates, who will have their votes discarded, requiring a recalculation of the winners and losers across the ballot.
  • Under Iraq's election laws, this could cost Mr. Allawi's bloc a second seat, while awarding seats to Mr. Maliki or other parties.
  • The court's moves have strengthened Mr. Maliki's efforts to win a second term as prime minister, but his prospects are still uncertain due to new criticism following bombings at Shiite mosques and neighborhoods.
  • The ruling has revived sectarian tensions that were already present in Iraq, raising the specter of even more violence.
  • Mr. Allawi's supporters have denounced the ruling as an attempt to undercut the voters' will, reminiscent of Sunni anger over the 2005 elections that fueled the insurgency.
  • The court's ruling can be appealed, delaying final results for at least another month, which could further delay the formation of a new government.
  • The convoluted challenges to the results, the lack of public information, and the weakness of Iraq's state institutions have compounded confusion over the election's outcome and the path to forming a government.

Statistics:

  • Mr. Allawi's coalition has 91 seats in the new 325-seat Parliament, compared to 89 for Mr. Maliki's State of Law coalition.
  • The court has disqualified 52 candidates in total, including 51 losing candidates and 1 winning candidate.
  • The voting system has already resulted in the disqualification of over 500 candidates accused of having Baathist ties.
  • The Accountability and Justice Commission has accused 252 candidates of having Baathist ties, out of which 52 have been disqualified.
  • The commission is planning to bar 8 more winning candidates in addition to the 1 already disqualified, pending a court ruling.

Sources:

  • "Iraqi Elections Court Disqualifies Winning Candidate" by Steven Lee Myers, New York Times, May 3, 2010.
  • Correction: Sam Dagher, New York Times, May 3, 2010.