Iraq's Provincial Elections: Dawa Party Wins but Falls Short of Unanimous Control

Strategic Insights -

Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki's Dawa Party emerged as the overwhelming winner of Iraq's provincial elections, winning the most votes in nine of Iraq's 18 provinces. However, the party fell short of gaining absolute control, as the results revealed a diverse and complex political landscape. The elections reflected a strong desire among Iraqis for a unified and powerful central government, yet this sentiment was tempered by a reluctance to grant too much authority to any single party. The election outcome suggests that Iraqis are seeking a balanced approach, one that promotes national unity while also acknowledging the need for regional autonomy.

Key Takeaways:

  • The Dawa Party won the most votes in nine provinces, indicating its popularity and strong national appeal.
  • However, the party's slate barely made a showing in Sunni-majority provinces, suggesting that its message was not as resonant in those areas.
  • The election results showed a marked preference for nationalist and secular parties in Sunni-majority provinces, while in Shiite-majority provinces, Islamist parties dominated.
  • The surprising performance of the Al Hadba party in Nineveh Province could right the balance of power in the provincial government, potentially giving Arabs a stronger foothold on the council.
  • The absence of a vote in Kirkuk Province due to ongoing tensions and disputes over eligibility has left the situation uncertain, with many questions remaining about who will be eligible to vote and shape the province's future.
  • The results also revealed the continued influence of sectarian divisions, with most provinces voting along sectarian lines, although there are some exceptions, such as Karbala, where a secular civic leader narrowly edged out the Dawa candidate.
  • In the Sunni-majority provinces, there was a mix of tribal, secular, and Sunni Islamist parties competing for seats, indicating a more complex and nuanced electoral landscape in these areas.
  • The maneuvering and deal-making among parties and coalitions could lead to the need for complex negotiations and alliances in order to form provincial governments.

Statistics:

  • Over 14,000 candidates from 400 political parties and lists took part in the elections.
  • The initial results account for 90 percent of the votes, which showed a clear preference for nationalist and secular parties in Sunni-majority provinces and Islamist parties in Shiite-majority provinces.
  • The Dawa Party won its second-highest proportion of votes in Basra (37 percent) and the highest share of votes in Muthanna (11 percent).
  • In Babil Province, the Dawa Party won 12.5 percent, but this still falls short of the majority required for unopposed control.

Sources:

  • The New York Times, "Iraq's Provincial Elections: A Divided but Unifying Vote" (exact date not provided)
  • Iraq's Independent High Electoral Commission, "Preliminary Results in Iraq's Provincial Elections" (exact date not provided)
  • Tamouz, a nongovernment organization monitoring the elections under contract with the United Nations, reported problems including several instances of ballot stuffing in Falluja by the Iraqi Islamic Party.