Iraq's Shiites Face Divided Loyalties as Elections Near

Strategic Insights -

With three months to go before Iraq's first democratic elections, the Shiites are facing a critical moment, as their parties and powerful figures are at odds with each other. The leading Shiite cleric, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, is attempting to pull the parties together to ensure the Shiites dominate the new government. However, internal rifts and the possibility of an anti-American alliance between Ahmad Chalabi, the former exile and Pentagon favorite, and Moktada al-Sadr, the firebrand cleric, threaten to undermine the Shiites' position.

Key Takeaways:

  • The Shiites, who make up at least 60 percent of the population, are the dominant force in Iraqi politics, but internal rifts and divisions between the parties could allow other groups, including the secular party of Prime Minister Ayad Allawi, to win voters who otherwise support the religious Shiites.
  • Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani is trying to broker a deal between the two main religious Shiite parties, the Dawa Islamic Party and the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (Sciri), to create a single coalition dominated by religious parties.
  • An anti-American alliance between Ahmad Chalabi and Moktada al-Sadr could emerge as a dominant force, given their large followings and Chalabi's ability to draw Sadr into a coalition.
  • The Americans are counting on a national assembly united enough to address Iraq's profound challenges, but the sectarian divisions and potential for violence could undermine this goal.
  • The Sunni Arabs are divided about even taking part in the elections, with some groups threatening to boycott if the Americans invade Falluja.
  • The Iraqi National Accord Party, led by Dr. Allawi, is at risk of losing support if it orders an invasion of Falluja, making it harder for the party to form alliances and win elections.
  • The loose alliance between Chalabi and Sadr could gel and emerge as the dominant Shiite coalition, posing a significant challenge to the established parties and the American government's goals.

Statistics:

  • At least 60 percent of the Iraqi population is Shia.
  • 30,000 votes are needed to win one seat in the 275-seat national assembly.
  • The two main religious Shiite parties, Dawa and Sciri, have agreed to form a coalition to run in the elections.
  • The Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (Sciri) has 42 smaller parties under its umbrella.
  • The Iraqi National Accord Party is expected to run in January but is at risk politically.
  • Support for the interim government has plummeted to 20% from 70% last year.
  • 75% of Iraqis believe that sectarian differences are a major obstacle to democracy.

Sources:

  • "The Shi'is of Iraq" by Yitzhak Nakash (Princeton University Press, 2003)
  • International Republican Institute
  • Associated Press
  • New York Times
  • Al-Sistani's commission
  • Interview with Adnan Ali, deputy in the Dawa Islamic Party
  • Interview with Hoshyar Zebari, foreign minister and senior official of the Kurdistan Democratic Party
  • Western diplomat