Iraq's Uncertain Future: Challenges Ahead After US Troops' Withdrawal

Strategic Insights -

Almost nine years after the US-led invasion, the withdrawal of US troops from Iraq is underway, but concerns remain about the country's stability in the post-withdrawal era. Despite a significant decline in violence, Iraq still faces security challenges from militant groups, including al-Qaida, insurgent groups tied to Saddam Hussein's Baath party, and Shiite militias allegedly funded by Iran. Experts warn that the division within Iraqi society, created by the US-led invasion in 2003, may persist, making it difficult for the government to maintain control.

Key Takeaways:

  • The US-led invasion in 2003 created a profound division within Iraqi society, which may persist, making it challenging for the government to control different militant groups with ideologically divided stances.
  • Al-Qaida, insurgent groups allegedly tied to Saddam Hussein's Baath party, and Shiite militias allegedly funded by Iran are complicating factors to Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's government.
  • The sectarian and political polarization in Iraq was also stimulated by the almost absence of true national reconciliation efforts by Maliki's government.
  • The withdrawal of US troops from the disputed areas may create a security vacuum, leading to turf wars, as identified by Sabah al-Sheikh, a professor in politics.
  • Muthana Hameed, an Iraqi army Lieutenant Colonel, believes that the Iraqi security forces are ready to maintain security in the country, but admits that they suffer from a degree of incompetence in intelligence service.
  • The withdrawal of US troops may create a new situation on the ground, where those who claimed to attack US troops may have no reason to continue violence.

Statistics:

  • The sectarian warfare in 2006 and 2007 saw a significant increase in violence, with a peak in daily violence.
  • The number of high-profile attacks still occurs daily in Iraq even after a significant decline in violence compared to its peak during the sectarian warfare.
  • The US-led invasion in 2003 resulted in a profound division within Iraqi society.
  • 2006 and 2007 witnessed the brink of civil war in Iraq.

Sources:

  • Jamal Hashim, "Almost nine years after the U.S.-led invasion, the U.S. troops would withdraw from Iraq late in 2011 as scheduled in security pact between the two countries." (Xinhua via COMTEX)
  • Nadhim al-Jubouri, quoted by Jamal Hashim, "Violence could remain the main concern in Iraq after the U.S. pullout due to the profound division that prevailed in the Iraqi society after the U.S.-led invasion in 2003."
  • Sabah al-Sheikh, quoted by Jamal Hashim, "Years of U.S. presence in the disputed areas created a sort of balance among the conflicting powers and now the U.S. withdrawal would open the door for turf war."
  • Muthana Hameed, quoted by Jamal Hashim, "Actually, we prefer the U.S. troops' departure, because sometimes they hampered us from doing our mission appropriately for the sake of their own tight safety measures."