Israel Predicts 50-70 Countries Will Not Support UN Resolution on Palestinian Statehood

Strategic Insights -

As Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas prepares to submit a resolution to the United Nations for recognition of Palestinian statehood, Israeli officials are sounding the alarm, predicting that between 50 and 70 countries will abstain or vote against the resolution in the General Assembly. The Palestinians, however, are expected to receive an overwhelming majority in the General Assembly, where they enjoy the near-unanimous support of the 120-member Non-Aligned Movement.

Key Takeaways:

  • Israeli Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon predicts that between 50 and 70 countries will not support the UN resolution on Palestinian statehood, with a "moral majority" of Western democracies leading the opposition.
  • The Palestinians are expecting to receive an overwhelming majority in the General Assembly, where they enjoy the near-unanimous support of the 120-member Non-Aligned Movement.
  • Israel is targeting countries in Africa, Latin America, and the Caribbean to block the resolution, with the greatest battleground being the European Union.
  • Ayalon acknowledges that the Palestinians are unlikely to obtain an EU majority, even if the bloc splinters, with Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and most former Soviet bloc countries expected to oppose the resolution.
  • Israel is banking on 'no' votes from Canada and Australia and abstentions from Japan, South Korea, Mexico, and Colombia.

Statistics:

  • 114 countries voted for the 2009 U.N. resolution endorsing the Goldstone Report, which accused Israel of systematic war crimes in its 2008-09 war against Hamas in the Gaza Strip.
  • 18 countries voted against the resolution.
  • 44 countries abstained from the vote.
  • 16 countries were absent.
  • The European Union has 27 member states.
  • The Palestinian Authority has submitted a resolution to the U.N. for recognition of Palestinian statehood.
  • The U.N. has 194 member states.
  • The Non-Aligned Movement has 120 member states.

Sources:

  • "Israeli official predicts 50-70 countries will not support Palestinian statehood bid" by Ben Birnbaum, The Washington Times, 2011
  • "Palestinian President set to address UN to ask for recognition" by Associated Press, 2011
  • "UN General Assembly" by United Nations, [no date]