Israeli and Palestinian Elections: A Shift in Focus Amid Ongoing Conflict

Strategic Insights -

As both Israelis and Palestinians prepare for elections, politics on both sides have taken a turn inward, with analysts suggesting that the broader Middle East conflict has receded into the background for the time being. Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's new centrist movement, Kadima, is expected to win a significant number of seats in the March elections, while Hamas is poised to make a strong showing in Palestinian legislative elections in January. Amidst the focus on internal issues, social concerns and economic woes are emerging as key campaign themes.

Key Takeaways:

  • Polls show Kadima, led by Ariel Sharon, winning about a third of the seats in the 120-seat Israeli parliament in the March elections, with Sharon's continued popularity seen as a reflection of his approach to the Palestinian problem.
  • The center-left Labor Party, currently in the number-two spot in the polls, is expected to focus on social issues, including poverty and income inequality, which are increasing among Arab citizens and ultra-Orthodox Jews in Israel.
  • Hamas is projected to win around 40 percent of the vote in the Palestinian legislative elections, significantly ahead of the ruling Fatah movement, due in part to widespread frustration with the Palestinian Authority's handling of governance and corruption.
  • Analysts warn that a single big Palestinian terrorist attack could sweep social issues back under the rug, where they have been virtually since Israel was created.
  • Israelis and Palestinians are watching the upcoming elections with great interest, with some analysts predicting a significant turning point in Palestinian politics, and others cautioning that internal issues will eventually be eclipsed by the need to deal with each other.

Statistics:

  • Kadima is expected to win about 30-40 seats in the 120-seat Israeli parliament in the March elections, according to recent polls.
  • The center-left Labor Party is currently polling around 20-25 seats, attracting support for its strong socialist message and focus on social issues.
  • Palestinians are projected to cast around 40% of their vote for Hamas in the January legislative elections, according to recent polls.
  • The Palestinian Authority's approval ratings have plummeted, with a recent poll showing 80% of Palestinians viewing the Authority as "ineffective" or "corrupt."

Sources:

  • NPR's Linda Gradstein
  • Asher Arian, Israeli elections expert
  • Uri Dromi, Israel Democracy Institute
  • Abdul Satter Kassem, Professor of Political Science at An-Najah University in Nablus
  • Mahdi Abdul Hadi, Director of a Palestinian think tank in East Jerusalem