Israeli and Palestinian Elections Mark Shift in Focus from Broader Middle East Conflict

Strategic Insights -

As Israelis and Palestinians prepare for their own elections in the new year, both sides are turning their attention inward, away from the broader Middle East conflict, at least for the time being. In Israel, Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's new centrist party, Kadima, is leading in the polls, while on the Palestinian side, the Islamist militant movement Hamas is taking part in legislative elections for the first time. According to analysts, politics on both sides have become more domestically focused, with issues such as poverty, corruption, and social inequality taking center stage.

Key Takeaways:

  • Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's new party, Kadima, is leading in the polls, with Sharon's continued popularity reflecting widespread approval of his approach to the Palestinian problem, including the historic withdrawal of Israeli troops and settlers from the Gaza Strip.
  • The center-left Labor Party is in the number-two spot in the polls, with its new leader, Amir Peretz, focusing on social issues such as poverty and income inequality.
  • Hamas is expected to win about 40% of the vote in the Palestinian legislative elections, significantly ahead of the ruling Fatah movement.
  • Palestinians are frustrated with Fatah and the Palestinian Authority it controls, which many see as ineffective and corrupt.
  • The ruling Fatah movement is also in disarray, with an open split between the Old Guard and the young guard, led by charismatic leaders like Marwan Barghouti.
  • Mahdi Abdul Hadi, the director of a Palestinian think tank, says the upcoming election could mark a significant turning point in Palestinian politics, with a new generation of leaders calling for change.
  • Abdul Satter Kassem, a professor of political science at An-Najah University, says Palestinians are also fed up with growing chaos and lawlessness in Gaza, particularly with the kidnapping of foreigners and the takeovers by armed groups of Palestinian governmental buildings.
  • Analysts warn that one or two big Palestinian terrorist attacks could easily sweep social issues back under the rug and refocus attention on the broader Middle East conflict.

Statistics:

  • Kadima party is expected to win about a third of the seats in the 120-seat Israeli parliament in the March elections.
  • Hamas is expected to win about 40% of the vote in the Palestinian legislative elections.
  • The income gap in Israel is one of the largest in the Western world, with poverty and social inequality increasing particularly among Arab citizens and ultra-Orthodox Jews.
  • The Palestinian Authority is facing growing criticism and disillusionment among Palestinians, who see it as ineffective and corrupt.

Sources:

  • All Things Considered, NPR News, "Israel and Palestine: Election Season" (December 2005)
  • Linda Gradstein, NPR News, Jerusalem, "Israel and Palestine: Election Season" (December 2005)
  • Asher Arian, Israeli elections expert, quoted in NPR News, "Israel and Palestine: Election Season" (December 2005)
  • Uri Dromi, Israel Democracy Institute, quoted in NPR News, "Israel and Palestine: Election Season" (December 2005)
  • Abdul Satter Kassem, professor of political science at An-Najah University, quoted in NPR News, "Israel and Palestine: Election Season" (December 2005)
  • Mahdi Abdul Hadi, director of a Palestinian think tank, quoted in NPR News, "Israel and Palestine: Election Season" (December 2005)