Israeli Elections: Gaza War's Impact on Voter Frustration and Shift to the Right

Strategic Insights -

Israelis go to polls on Tuesday, and the two wars in less than three years will be a deciding factor for many. Gaza still smolders after the 22-day assault on Hamas that killed 1,300 Palestinians, and many are frustrated with the Kadima party, which oversaw both operations. The ruling party will likely take the brunt of voter frustration over its performance. Polls predict that Likud party chief Benjamin Netanyahu will come out on top, a victory that could redefine the terms of Middle East peacemaking.

Key Takeaways:

  • The Gaza war has pushed Israelis further to the right, giving conservative parliamentary candidates the edge.
  • The ruling Kadima party, which oversaw both operations, will probably take the brunt of voter frustration over its performance.
  • Pollsters predicted that Likud party chief Benjamin Netanyahu would come out on top, with a small lead over Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, head of Kadima.
  • The Labor Party under Ehud Barak, now defense minister, withdrew from south Lebanon in April 2000, and Kadima, led by former Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, withdrew from the Gaza Strip in August 2005.
  • Analysts and pollsters say the war's indecisive outcome and the insecurity over what comes next is causing many to give up on Kadima.
  • Netanyahu is riding into election day with a lead over Livni, and Avigdor Lieberman's far-right Yisrael Beitainu party has gained the most from the Gaza war.
  • Lieberman's support is partly due to his questioning of the loyalty of Israeli Arabs, whom he has accused of not supporting the state of Israel.
  • The Gaza war has strengthened hawks for a plethora of reasons, including the fact that there is so much unfinished business, with Israel still bombing militants and tunnels, and Hamas still sending rockets into Israel.
  • Israelis who still support the vision of a two-state solution are largely divided between Labor and a slew of smaller left-wing parties.
  • The party that signed the Oslo Accords, Labor, is slated to get about 14 of 120 Knesset seats.
  • Up to 30 percent of the electorate is undecided, a sign of political exhaustion according to commentator Sima Kadmon.

Statistics:

  • 1,300 Palestinians were killed in the 22-day assault on Hamas.
  • Up to 30 percent of the electorate is undecided.
  • The Kadima party will likely take the brunt of voter frustration over its performance.
  • Likud party chief Benjamin Netanyahu has a small lead over Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni.
  • Avigdor Lieberman's far-right Yisrael Beitainu party has gained the most from the Gaza war.
  • The Labor Party is slated to get about 14 of 120 Knesset seats.

Sources:

  • The Christian Science Monitor (2009)
  • Yedioth Ahronoth mass circulation newspaper (op-ed by Sima Kadmon)
  • Interdisciplinary Center in Herzliya, north of Tel Aviv (conference by Yuval Steinitz)